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2018年02月24日 23:39:53 | 作者:度大夫 | 来源:新华社
The worlds oldest person, Misao Okawa,died in Japan on Wednesday, a month after celebrating her 117th birthday.世界最年老者大川美佐绪周三去世于日本,一个月前她还庆祝了自己17岁生日。The nursing home where she lived in Osaka said she breathed her last around 7am (2200 GMT Tuesday).她所在的大阪的一家养老院说她在早上七点左右断气。On the occasion of her birthday early last month, Okawa, a mother of three, grandmother of four and great-grandmother of six, was one of only a handful of people still alive who had been born in the 19th century.她有三个孩子,四个孙辈,六个曾孙辈,也是出生9世纪的现存的少数几人中的一个。Her birth on March 5,1898 predated the Wright brothers first powered human flight by five years, she wa s aly ateenager when World War I broke out and in her 70s by the time of the first moon landing.她出生于18985号,比怀特兄弟的第一次动力人类飞行还要早5年时司,第一次世界大战爆发时她就已经是个青少年了 ,第一次月球登陆时,她就已0多岁了。When she turned 114, she was officiallyrecognised by Guinness World Records as the oldest woman in the lobe.当她114岁时,被吉尼斯纪世界上最老的女人。Japan, known for the longevity of its people, is home to the worlds oldest man Sakari Momoi, who cele brated hisll2th birthday in February.以长寿闻名的日本还拥有世界上最老的男人百井盛,他在二月份庆祝了自己112岁的生日。In 2013, life expectancy for women in Japan was 86.61, the longest in the world followed by Hong Kong women, according to the health ministry.根据卫生部提供的数据013年,日本妇女的人均寿命是86.61岁,世界第一,排在第二的是香港妇女。For men it was 80.21, the fourth longest,after men in Hong Kong, Iceland and Switzerland.日本男性的平均年龄0.21岁,排在香港,冰岛和瑞士之后。The worlds oldest person is now believed to be American Gertrude Weaver, who is reportedly 116 years old.现在世界最老的人是美国的GertrudeWeaver,据报道已经116岁。来 /201504/367702The terrorist attacks on France were a shock. The ensuing wave of mostly uninformed foreign opining about France was not. Even more than other countries, France has a distorted international image.对法国的恐怖袭击令人震惊。随之而来的一波外国人对法国不着边际的却并非如此。相对于其他国家,法国的国际形象更为扭曲。Perversely, that’s because foreigners tend to feel they know France. After all, it’s the world’s most visited country. It used to foist its “civilisationon other people. It still takes up disproportionate global mindshare. It rejects many international shibboleths on how to run a country. Many foreigners speak a bit of French. So the temptation is to feel that they understand France, and disagree with it. Hence the phenomenon that the French call le French bashing (something at which they themselves excel). I live in Paris and collect misunderstandings about France. Here are a few:变态的是,造成这种状况的原因是外国人往往觉得自己了解法国。毕竟,法国是世界上游客到访最多的国家。它过去常把自己“文明”强加到其他民族。它在全球意识中仍占有重要一席。它拒绝很多国际上通行的治国套路。许多外国人能说一点儿法语。所以,他们忍不住觉得自己了解法国,但不与其苟同。于是就出现了法国人所称的“敲打法国”现象(其实法国人自己也擅长此道)。住在巴黎的我,收集了一些有关法国的误解。以下列出其中一些:“France is sliding back into anti-Semitism.”Many French Jews are rightly scared. This month’s murder of four people in the kosher supermarket was only the latest anti-Semitic attack here. But it’s the anti-Semitism of a small jihadi cluster, a tiny minority within French Muslims. Meanwhile mainstream anti-Semitism looks weaker than ever: 89 per cent of French people polled by Pew Research last year expressed positive attitudes towards Jews. France today is neither Vichy nor Eurabia.“法国正在倒退至反犹太主义。”许多法国犹太人有理由害怕。本月发生在巴黎一家犹太超市的4人被杀事件只是最新一起反犹太袭击。但这是一小撮圣战分子的反犹太主义,他们在法国的穆斯林中只占极少数。与此同时,主流反犹太主义看起来空前虚弱:在皮尤研究中心(Pew Research Centre)去年调查的法国人中,89%表达了对犹太人的积极态度。今天的法国既不是维希政Vichy),也并非“欧拉伯Eurabia)。“France is a museum, stuck in the past.To the contrary, just before the terrorists attacked, France was having a very creative moment. Fed up with economic stagnation, the French were borrowing ideas from abroad.“法国是一个物馆,被钉在过去。”与此相反,在恐怖分子发动袭击前,法国正处在一个很有创造力的时期。受够了经济停滞的法国人,正在从国外借鉴经验。People across France have become “open to the world argues French economist Robin Rivaton. The Pisani-Ferry report, commissioned by the government to set national targets for 2025, obsessively benchmarks France against other countries, notes Helen Drake of Loughborough University. The report’s aspirations for instance, for France to have 10 “world-class multidisciplinary universitiesreflect the national belief that France should always be number one and cutting-edge.法国经济学家罗宾#8226;里瓦Robin Rivaton)认为,法国人已经开始“对世界开放”。拉夫堡大学(Loughborough University)的海#8226;德雷Helen Drake)指出,法国政府为了设025年国家目标而委托制定的皮萨费里(Pisani-Ferry)报告,念念不忘地将法国与其他国家进行基准对比。报告列出的各项抱负——例如,法国要拥0所“世界级的综合大学”——反映了一种国民信仰,即法国应该永远是第一,永远站在最前沿。International thinking is changing France: les start-ups in the tech sector venerate Silicon Valley; restaurant chefs have brought home ideas from stints in the Anglosphere; and, as French schools wonder how to emulate Finland, there’s a national debate about dumping France’s brutal grading system. Or French novelist Patrick Modiano’s speech accepting the 2014 Nobel Prize for literature: it’s a eulogy to foreign role models from Osip Mandelstam to Alfred Hitchcock.国际上的思维正在改变法国:法国高科技初创企业膜拜硅谷;餐厅厨师从英语文化Anglosphere)的工作经验带回了创意;而且,在法国学校研究如何模仿芬兰时,该国开展了一场关于取消残酷评分制度的辩论。或者,读一下法国小说家帕特里克#8226;莫迪亚诺(Patrick Modiano)接受2014年诺贝尔文学奖时的演讲稿:那是一篇对外国榜样——从奥斯#8226;曼德尔斯塔姆(Osip Mandelstam)到阿尔弗雷德#8226;希区柯克(Alfred Hitchcock)——的颂词。Is France a museum? Economist Jean Tirole just won a Nobel too, Thomas Piketty is changing the global economic debate and on January 11 million marched for freedom of expression.法国是一个物馆吗?经济学家#8226;梯若Jean Tirole)刚刚也获得了诺贝尔奖;托马斯#8226;皮凯Thomas Piketty)正在改变全球经济辩论1日,数百万人为捍卫言论自由而游行。“The French reject change because they want to hang on to their privileges.It’s true that whenever any government timidly proposes a reform, some group shouts it down: farmers, notaries, pilots, trade unions, etc. But these are small privileged interest groups. Only 8 per cent of French workers belong to a union fewer than in the US. Ever more French people are unprivileged outsiders on temporary contracts. Most of them want change.“法国人拒绝改变,因为他们想保住自己的特权。”没错,每当政府(无论由谁主政)胆怯地提议一项改革,总会有一些群体强烈抗议:农民、公员、飞行员以及工会等等。但这些都是小范围的享受特殊待遇的利益集团。只%的法国工人加入了工会——比例小于美囀?越来越多的法国人签订临时合同,成为享受不到特权的局外人。他们中大多数人希望改变。来 /201504/367506

American forces misidentified a target in Kunduz, Afghanistan last month that resulted in a mistaken half-hour aerial attack on a hospital that killed at least 30 people, mostly doctors and patients, according to a U.S. military investigation.美国军方调查显示,美军部队上个月在阿富汗昆都士误认袭击目标而对一所医院进行了半小时空袭,导致至0人丧生,其中大多是医生和病人。Army Gen. John Campbell, the commander of U.S. and international forces in Afghanistan, said Wednesday that Afghan forces asked for U.S. air support to strike a National Directorate of Security building believed to be occupied by Taliban fighters. According to the report, the AC-130 air crew instead fired 211 shells at a hospital operated by the international charity Doctors Without Borders (MSF) that was 450 meters away.美国和国际部队在阿富汗的指挥官、陆军上将坎贝尔星期三说,阿富汗部队请求美军空中援,袭击据信被塔利班武装人员占据的国家安全董事会大楼。结果调查显示,AC-130机组人员50米外一所由国际慈善机构医生无国界运营的医院发11颗炮弹;This was a tragic mistake,; Campbell said in Kabul Wednesday. ;This is an example of human and process error. It was directly the result of avoidable human error.;坎贝尔星期三在喀布尔说,“这是一个悲剧性错误。”他说,“这是人为和程序错误的一个例子,是由可以避免的人为错误直接造成的。”Several factors contributed to the mistake, according to Campbell. The air crew launched more than an hour earlier than planned, missing out on a crucial brief that would normally include identifying no-strike areas such as the MSF hospital. Once in flight, the aircrafts electronic systems malfunctioned, eliminating the crews ability to transmit , send and receive email, or send and receive electronic messages.坎贝尔说,几个问题导致了这一错误。机组人员比计划提前一个多小时展开行动,没有参加一次关键的简报会,会上一般会包括确认像无国界医生组织的医院这种非袭击区的信息。在飞机飞行时电子系统出了故障,使得机组无法传送视频、收发电邮或者电子信息。The crew then believed it was the target of a missile, Campbell told reporters, so they moved out of the aircrafts normal strike range, degrading the accuracy of the targeting system. That loss of accuracy appeared to cause the coordinates of the Taliban target to land on an open field. The crew visually located the ;closest, largest; building to that field and, thinking that was the target, fired on it.坎贝尔对记者说,机组人员当时认为他们是导弹袭击目标,于是他们飞离飞机正常袭击范围,降低了目标系统的准确率。这似乎导致了塔利班的地面目标坐标锁定在一处空地。机组目测找到空地附近“最近、最大”的建筑物,认为那就是目标,于是开火。Campbell said some military personnel involved in the incident have been suspended from duties pending possible disciplinary action, and that the U.S. intends to assist Doctors Without Borders in rebuilding the hospital.坎贝尔说,与这次袭击有关的一些军事人员已经暂停工作,等候可能的纪律处分。美国计划帮助医生无国界重建那所医院。来 /201511/412444

Reuniting with his family after a terrifying ordeal on the high seas ;was my life starting all over again,; Hafez Alawdi says.在公海上经历了可怕遭遇后与家人重;我的生活全得重新开始了,; Hafez Alawdi说。Hafez is a chemistry professor at Cal State Fresno in California and his wife Samiha, son Shaker, 10, and daughter Sara, 4, braved the 16-hour boat trip from the Red Sea port city of Mocha, Yemen, to Djibouti earlier this week, fleeing the intensifying violence there.Hafez是加州夫勒斯诺市州立大学的化学教授,为了逃离也门不断加剧的暴力行为,他带着他的妻子Samiha,他10岁的儿子Shaker,岁的女儿Sara,从也门的红海港口城市卡出发,在海上航行6个小时后, 在本周早些时候到达吉布提。Hafez and his daughter Sara are both U.S. citizens but his wife and son are Yemeni nationals.Hafez和他的女儿Sara都是美国公民,但他的妻子和儿子是也门籍;If you have connections, you can provide for your family -- if you dont have connections, Im sorry, but youre out of luck.;;如果你有关系,那你就可以供养你的家但如果你没有关系,那我很抱你的运气就到此为止了;Hafez had connections and thanks to the tip on the U.S. Embassy in Sanas website, he tracked down a boat departing from Mocha, paid for three spots and his family was on the road at 3am the following night.Hafez有关而且多亏了美国驻萨那大使馆官网提他找到了一艘船离开卡,在第二天晚上凌晨3点他为他的家人付了路上三个景点费。For Samiha, its been a terrifying few weeks. The young mother, parenting alone in the city of Taiz while her husband works in California, describes her average day: ;Waking up in the morning, I dont send the kids to school we eat minimal food because you dont want it to run out then we take shelter, always take shelter hide from all the bombings and then once the night hits thats when the airstrikes get worse. The electricity goes out. And more shelter.;对于Samiha来说,这几周太可怕了。这位年轻的母亲,独自在塔伊兹抚养她的孩子,而她的丈夫在加州工作,她描述她平常的一;早晨醒来,我不送孩子们上学,我们吃得很少,因为不想让食物那么快吃完——然后我们住避难,总是住在避难所——以防被炸弹击中——然后夜晚降临了——这时空袭变得更严重了。电停了然后是寻找更多的避难所;As Samiha and the children boarded the boat, Hafez boarded a plane to come meet them.在Samiha和孩子们上船之后,Hafez也登上了一架飞机来接他们;I didnt know whether Id see my family again -- if god for bid the ship sinks; he says. Sitting on the plane, ;tears start running down my eyes and a passenger next to me was just looking at me like OK theyre probably thinking that Im crazy -- I probably am at this point.;;我不知道我是否能再见到我的家人——如果神下旨要让船沉没的;他说。坐在飞机上,;我的眼睛开始流泪——我旁边的一位乘客只是看着我好像——好吧,他们可能以为我疯了——我可能已经在快疯了的临界点了;When he landed in Djibouti, he borrowed a phone, dialed the US Embassy Djibouti emergency number and the consular officer handed the phone to his wife.在他降落在吉布提他借了一部电拨打了美国驻吉布提大使馆的紧急号码,然后领事馆官员把电话递给了他的妻子;He handed the phone to my wife, and as soon as I heard her voice, that was the happiest moment that I had,; he says, choking up. ;I knew that my family were here and they were with a fellow American whos taking care of them.;;他把电话递给了我的妻当我听到她声音的时那是我最幸福的时;他说着便哽咽了起来;我知道我的家人在这里,而且他们与美国同胞在一起,同胞们在照顾他们;He starts to describe how the kids leaped out of the consular car but stops.然后他开始描述孩子们从领事馆汽车里跳出来的那一刻,但是又停止了;I cant find the words to describe that moment,; he said.;我找不到任何词语来形容那一;他说;Im glad that I took this risk and if I have to take that all over again -- I will,; he said. ;Its a gamble. ... I did not know what to expect, its definitely better than staying in Yemen.; He advises any Americans still in Yemen to get out -- and get out now.;;我很高兴,我冒了这次险,如果让我再来一次的我还是会,;他说;这是一场……我不知道会发生什但绝对比让他们呆在也门要强;他建议所有呆在也门的美国人赶紧离开——现在马上;If all goes according to plan, the Alawdis will remain in Djibouti until U.S. visas come through for Samiha and Shaker, and then the whole family is Fresno-bound.如果一切都按计划进在美国签会通过Samiha和Shaker的签前, Alawdis都会呆在吉布之后他们整个家庭就都是夫勒斯诺市的居民了。Asked if hes excited to go to America for the first time, 10-year-old Shaker flashed a big smile, head nodding. But for now, his dad says, he wants to take a nap.问他第一次要去美国了,是否感到很兴奋,10岁的Shaker露出了一个大大的微笑,并点头。但是现他的父亲他需要先睡个午觉。来 /201504/370618

As we get closer to relegating 2014 to the history books, your local stock market guru most likely couldn’t be happier to see those books slammed shut.2014年即将成为历史,各路股市专家也终于可以松一口气了。It’s been one of the worst years for investment decision-making on record, almost across the board. No strategy worked consistently, save for the type of shareholder activism that only a handful of Wall Street’s billionaire titans are able to engage in.从投资决策角度来看,2014年是有史以来最糟糕的年景之一,几乎可以说是全盘皆输。除了少数华尔街亿万富豪才玩得起的“股东积极主义”维权策略还算奏效外,没有哪种投资策略在这一年里始终灵光。For almost everyone else, it was a year of frustration against a backdrop of better-than-average returns for the most popular index in the land.对于更多的普通投资者而言,在标普500指数回报高于历史平均值的大背景下014年是充满挫折的一年。With a bit of help from Charles Dickens, let’s take a look back at the year in which almost nothing worked:我们不妨借用一些狄更斯的名句,来回顾下几乎各种战略都失灵的2014年:It was the best of times, it was the worst of times…这是最好的时代,这是最坏的时代……The Samp;P 500’s total return of 14% this year was 40% higher than its 25-year average annual gain. Wall Street’s chief strategists spent much of the last 12 months revising their targets higher from behind. The index printed over 50 all-time record closes, with nearly all investment management professionals racing to at least pull even. A few characteristics made the U.S. stock market particularly difficult to keep up with this year.今年,标00指数的总回报率4%,比该指5年期平均年化收益率高0%。过2个月,华尔街的首席战略师们一直在上调其目标值。标00指数出现0多次创纪录的收盘,几乎所有专业投资管理人士都卯足了劲,至少要跑平该指数。但有些因素让美股投资者要获得高于基准股指的收益,在今年尤为困难。It was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness…这是智慧的时代,也是愚蠢的时代……An odd assortment of Samp;P sectors led the market higher this year, with some strange bedfellows atop the leaderboard. Even if a manager had foreseen that the healthcare sector would gain 27% this year, would they have guessed that utilities would be in the No. 2 slot, with gains of 23%? Unlikely.今年领跑美国股市的标00公司的行业组合有些奇特,出现了一些令人意想不到的黑马。就算基金经理预见到了医疗保健行业今年将上涨27%,难道他们也能猜到公用事业行业将位列第二,上涨23%?不大可能。Given that every single Wall Street economist had called for higher rates at the start of this year and 67 of 67 economists surveyed by Bloomberg concurred, the rate-sensitive utilities industry would have been the last sector a rational person would want to overweight. Bets on the financial sector were slow to pay off while wagers on “cheapenergy stocks demolished portfolio performance in the third and fourth quarters, just as they had elevated it during the first and second.今年年初,所有华尔街经济学家都呼吁提高利率,彭社就这个问题调查7位经济学家的意见,他们全票赞同,有鉴于此,任何一个有理性的人都不会想要增持对利率敏感的公用事业股。把赌注押在金融股上的投资者,回报进展缓慢;而瞅准了“低价”能源股的投资者,投资组合业绩在第一和第二季度曾因此推高,却在第三和第四季度被大拖后腿,可谓“成也萧何,败也萧何”。It was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity…这是信仰的时代,也是怀疑的时代……Rounding out the top-performing sectors of 2014 was an unlikely pair: tech (+16%) and consumer staples (+13.2%)—the most aggressive and most defensive areas of the market, running side-by-side toward the finish line, with confounded spectators struggling to concoct a narrative for this. Why would the least cyclical sectors—healthcare, staples and utilities—lead the markets in a year in which unemployment plummeted and GDP growth gained momentum? Much to the chagrin of the pundit class, sometimes there are no satisfying answers. To e Kurt Vonnegut:另外两个014年表现上佳的行业可谓风马牛不相及:高科技(上6%)和必需消费品(上涨13.2%)。市场上最激进与最保守的两大投资领域前后脚撞线,留下困惑的旁观者们不知该如何解释这一现象014年,美国失业率大幅下降,GDP呈增长势头,为何领跑市场的却是医疗保健、必需消费品、公用事业等周期性最不明显的行业?令专家们懊恼的是,有些时候就是没有令人满意的。美国作家库尔特o冯内古特曾写道:Tiger got to hunt, bird got to fly;老虎要猎食,鸟儿要飞翔;Man got to sit and wonder ‘why, why, why?’人类想知道“这是为什么?”Tiger got to sleep, bird got to land;老虎要入眠,鸟儿要降落;Man got to tell himself he understand.人不得不告慰自己,原来如此。If you thought that getting sector over- and under-weights correct at the outset proved difficult, switching between them throughout the year was nearly impossible. A quantitative analyst from Nomura Securities explained to Barron’s in November that “industry leadership has been reversing from month-to-month at a rate unseen in decades of stock-market history. ‘Even if you’re picking the right stocks in a sector,he says, ‘things are moving around so much that your performance doesn’t persist.’”如果你认为一开始准确判断应增持和减持哪些行业的股票是件难事,在年内不断调整投资组合更是难上加难1月,野村券一位定量分析师向《巴伦周刊》表示:“行业领军者每个月都在变换,其变化速度之快,在股市数十年未见。即便你选对了某行业的个股,由于市场环境瞬息万变,业绩也根本无法持续。”It was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness…这是光明的季节,也是黑暗的季节……Getting sector calls right was the least of any investor’s problems this year because, outside of the brilliance of U.S. stock gains, the lights were off around the world.对投资者而言,今年对行业的准确判断还只是个小问题,因为除了美股,今年全球的投资好选择不多。With both the Samp;P 500 and Nasdaq returning over 14% while the Dow and MidCap 400 each kicking in close to 10%, you would assume that passive investors would have an awful lot to celebrate this year. And indeed, they would have, if it weren’t for those pesky overseas stocks that did nothing but drag on the performance of any diversified portfolio.鉴于标普500和纳斯达克指数都回升4%以上,道琼斯和标普400中型股指数也都回升了0%,你可能会认为今年被动投资者应该收获颇丰。确实,要不是那些恼人的海外股业绩不佳,大拖多元化投资组合的后腿,被动投资者原本应该值得庆祝。With the majority of professional advisors (myself included) preaching the benefits of global diversification to their clients, 2014 looks more like a draw than an outright victory in the harsh light of December’s low winter sun. Consider the fact that, through last week, the MSCI World Index gained just 2% on the year, with nearly 5% drops for both the MSCI Emerging Markets index and the EAFE index of developed markets outside of the ed States. Ironically, the single best-performing foreign market in the world, the Shanghai Composite of mainland Chinese equities (up 45%) is the only one that U.S. investors could not actually put their money into.大多数专业顾问(包括我在内)都会对其客户大力鼓吹全球化多元投资组合的好处,然而,2月看来,残酷的现实是2014年更像是个平局,而非大获全胜。事实上,上周根士丹利资本国际全球指数同比仅上涨了2%,而根士丹利资本新兴市场指数(MSCI Emerging Markets)和追踪美国以外发达国家市场的EAFE指数双双下跌了近5%。具有讽刺意味的是,除美国以外全球唯一一个表现上佳的市场——中国大陆股市的上综指(上涨了45%),也是唯一一个美国投资者无法进入的市场。Over 10- and 20-year stretches, geographic and asset class diversification have proven beneficial for returns and risk management. Unfortunately, you are not guaranteed to see the benefits of such a strategy during any 12-month period. In an era of 140-character writing and two-minute , should we be surprised that investors have trouble judging the success of their portfolios over long periods?0年和20年的时间跨度来看,地域和资产类别的多元化已经明对投资回报和风险管理有益。不幸的是,2个月内,不一定能看到此种战略的好处。在如今这个140字微消息和2分钟短视频盛行的时代,投资者不能以长期的表现来判断其投资组合的成败,又有何奇怪?It was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…这是充满希望的春天,也是令人绝望的寒冬……One of the most discouraging aspects of 2014 for professional investors has been the start-and-stop nature of the recovery. We coasted into January on a trend of strengthening economic reports. Within a few weeks, a nationwide snowstorm seemingly drove the economic data off the side of the road.对专业投资者而言014年最令人沮丧的一点是,美国经济复苏时断时续014月,经济领域捷报频传。然而,在短短几周内,一场暴风雪席卷全美,各种经济数据似乎也因此停摆。Market watchers were forced to digest the reality of negative 2.9% GDP for the first quarter of the year. All of a sudden, everyone’s forecasts seemed too rosy—or at least too smooth—compared to the lumpy reality. This led to a raft of second-guessing on the timing of the Fed’s eventual exit from its bond-buying stimulus program. We went from confidence to WTF? in a space of a few weeks, with all the asset class rotations and market corrections that come along with a fresh bout of uncertainty.市场观察人士被迫接受一季度美国GDP负增.9%这一现实。突然间,同波诡云谲的现实相比,所有人的预测似乎都过于乐观,至少是过于平稳。这导致人们纷纷猜测美联储最终退出其债券购买计划的时机。短短几周内,我们从信心满满变成了垂头丧气,同时,伴随着不确定性的再次来袭,资产类别的交替以及市场调整也随之而来。Despite the fact that each market rebound ended up as a V-shaped affair, each successive rally was carried out with less and less individual stock participation. Glaring divergences between winners and losers, large caps and small caps, preoccupied the commentariat for most of the spring and summer. Deflationary concerns from Europe and the Japanese technical recession further confounded analysts, as Treasury yields and inflation indicators in the U.S. were driven lower despite the improving domestic economy.尽管每轮市场反弹最终都呈V形,每次连续的涨势中,个股的参与越来越少。今年春夏两季的绝大部分时间里,时事分析员们都专注于赢家与输家、大盘股和小盘股之间的明显差异。欧洲的通缩担忧以及日本的技术性衰退,使得分析师们愈加困惑,尽管美国经济正在好转,美国国库券收益率和通胀指标却双双下行。Put succinctly, there was no way to describe or explain the crosscurrents of 2014. And I’m not convinced that the benefit of hindsight will make what happened this year any clearer years from now.简言之,2014年种种相反的趋势无法描述和解释。我也不信,多年之后,人们凭借后见之明,能将今年发生的种种事情看得更清楚。We had everything before us, we had nothing before us…我们的前路应有尽有,我们的前路一无所有……While the Samp;P 500 is on track to conclude another stellar year of gains, those who sought to beat the index are poised to finish with a more dubious distinction. According to Lipper, 85% of all active stock mutual fund managers had been trailing their benchmarks through the end of November. In a typical year, there are nearly twice as many managers outperforming, with only around two thirds of funds struggling to catch up. Lipper says this is the worst year for active managers relative to the market in three decades.在即将结束的2014年,标普500指数再次实现亮眼增长,而那些本欲跑赢该指数的基金经理们,表现则没那么出色。Lipper公司称,截止11月底5%的活跃股票型共同基金经理业绩低于标00指数。而在正常的年份里,跑赢该指数的基金经理比例是今年的两倍,也就是说,通常只有约三分之二的基金表现不如标普500指数。Lipper公司称,这是30年来活跃基金经理相对大盘表现最差的一年。Stock pickers encountered difficulty this year in part because of concentration at the top of the market. Just five stocks—Apple, Berkshire Hathaway, Johnson amp; Johnson, Microsoft, and Intelaccounted for 20% of the market’s gains. If you weren’t at least equally weighted toward them, you had virtually no shot at making up for missing their enormous, index-driving gains. A majority of the market’s stocks did not perform nearly as well. According to the Leuthold Group, only 30% of Samp;P 1500 stocks posted gains exceeding the index itself. You’d have to go back to 1999 to see anything like this.今年选股遇到困难,部分原因在于市场顶部高度集中。苹果、伯克希尔o哈撒韦、强生、微软和英特尔这五只股票占去了市场涨幅的20%。如果你未持有上述股票,几乎就没有机会分享这场增长盛宴,而正是这几家公司的增长推高了标普500指数。市场上大部分股票的表现要逊色得多。研究公司路佛集团称,标500综合指数成分股中,仅0%的个股跑赢了该指数。上次出现这样的景象,那还是1999年的事。Fund shareholders weren’t wasting any time reacting to this year of disappointment. Collectively, they’ve added just billion to active stock-picking funds in the last 11 months, less than a quarter of the 2 billion they added in 2013, which was the first year of positive flows for the industry since 2007. This is not to say that they were sitting still. ETFs and passive index funds took in over 6 billion in net deposits through Thanksgiving, and Vanguard surpassed the trillion mark sometime in late summer. Investors seem to have decided that they’d rather bet on the horses than the jockeys, after all.在令人失望的2014年里,基金投资者们没有太多的动作。总体而言,过1个月中,主动选股基金仅新增了350亿美元资金,还不013年同期新增资金(1620亿美元)的四分之一013年是该行业自2007年以来首次实现资金净流入。不过,这并不是说基金行业毫无作为。截止感恩节,交易所交易基金(ETFs)和被动指数型基金吸纳了2060多亿美元净存款,行业领先者先锋集团管理的基金规模在今年夏末突破了3万亿美元大关。投资者们似乎已经决定,与其把宝押在“骑手”身上,不如直接把赌注押在“赛马”身上。We were all going direct to Heaven, we were all going direct the other way我们都将直上天堂,我们都将直下地狱The malaise was not confined to those picking individual stock winners. Through December 1, aggregate hedge fund returns trailed the market to the point of farce. According to data compiled by Bloomberg, hedge funds were up an average of 2% on the year, just barely offering the coupon rate of a risk-free 10-year Treasury note. Over 1,000 funds are on track to close down in 2014, the worst year for liquidations since .萎靡不振的不光是那些挑选个股的基金。截2日,对冲基金整体回报严重落后于市场。彭收集的数据显示,对冲基金平均同比上涨了2%,其回报率也就勉强赶上无风0年期美国国债的票面利率014年将000多只基金倒闭,是009年以来破产清算最多的一年。Among the gargantuan hedge funds that make up a majority of the industry’s assets under management, dispersion of returns shot up to notable levels. And for every big winner, like William Ackman’s Pershing Square, there was a big loser to counterbalance it, like John Paulson’s Advantage Fund. Investors choose hedge funds for their “non-correlated returns,meaning a tendency to move opposite from the general market’s direction. They certainly got such returns this year, unfortunately.几家大型对冲基金的资产规模,占据了该行业的大半江山。各家的回报率相差巨大。每个像威廉o阿克曼旗下潘兴广场那样的,都对应着一个像约翰o保尔森旗下优势基金那样的大输家。投资者选择对冲基金,是冲着其“非相关收益”,意即与大盘走向背道而行的趋势。今年,他们绝对是获得了“逆市”的收益,可惜是在大盘表现出色的情况下“逆市”。Financial advisors and asset allocators who had been hoping to see some benefit this year from tactical strategies were also not spared the punishment of a capricious market. Of the top three tactical strategies in the country (Mainstay Marketfield, Good Harbor U.S. Tactical Core, F-Squared Premium AlphaSector Index), two had nearly imploded with double-digit losses while the third found itself under SEC investigation for misleading the public about its historical returns. The other giant tactical manager, Schwab’s billion Windhaven Diversified Growth product, looks to end 2014 with a return close to zero. So much for tactics.那些原本希望今年凭借战术策略获得些利益的财务顾问和资产配置人员,也在反复无常的市场中栽了跟头。全美前三位的战术策略产品中,有两款产品几乎因为高达两位数的亏损而崩盘,还有一款产品则因为向公众误报自身历史回报率而受到美国交会调查。另一家战术产品巨头嘉信理财旗0亿美元的Windhaven Diversified Growth产品014年的回报率几乎为零。战术策略原来不过如此。In short, the period was so far like the present period, that some of its noisiest authorities insisted on its being received, for good or for evil, in the superlative degree of comparison only.简言之,那个时代与当今时代极为相似,一些最哗众取宠的权威人士,要么将其捧上天,要么把其贬得一文不值。When Dickens wrote about the French Revolution in A Tale of Two Cities, he did it with nearly a century of hindsight. Here, at the end of December, I don’t enjoy that luxury. As such, some of the trends I’ve written here are likely to remain in force for the foreseeable future, while others may have aly begun to fade. As one of this period’s “noisiest authorities,I insist only on your receiving this review with just one caveat in mind: Past performance does not guarantee future results.狄更斯在《双城记》中描写法国大革命时,距离事件发生已有近一个世纪。而我则是在今2月就回顾盘点这一年。因此,我在此描述的某些趋势,可能将在可预见的未来继续存在,而另一些趋势则可能已经开始减弱。作为当今时代“最哗众取宠的权威人士”之一,我只要求各位在阅读这篇文章时记住一点:过去的业绩并不能保将来的表现。来 /201501/354385

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