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2018年04月21日 10:20:21

While debate about the relevance of the secular stagnation idea to current economic conditions continues to rage, there is now almost universal acceptance of a crucial part of the argument. It is agreed that the “neutral” interest rate, which neither boosts nor constrains growth, has declined substantially and is likely to be lower in the future than in the past throughout the industrial world because of a growing relative abundance of savings relative to investment.关于长期停滞观点是否切合当前经济状况,人们还在热议,但这种观点中的一个关键部分已被极为普遍地认可。人们近乎一致地认为,既不会刺激增长、也不会抑制增长的“中性”利率已经大幅下降,而且未来工业国家的中性利率有可能比过去更低,原因是相对于投资来说,储蓄日益充裕。The idea that real interest rates — that is, adjusted for inflation — will be lower than they have been historically is reflected in the pronouncements of policymakers such as Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen, the medium-term forecasts of official agencies such as the Congressional Budget Office and the International Monetary Fund and the pricing of government bonds whose payments are tied to inflation.实际利率(即经过通胀调整后的利率)将比历史水平更低的观点,可见于美联储(Fed)主席珍妮特耶伦(Janet Yellen)等政策制定者的声明、美国国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)和国际货币基金组织(IMF)等官方机构的中期预测,以及那些与通胀挂钩的政府债券的定价中。This is important progress and has contributed to more prudent monetary policies than otherwise would have been made and the avoidance of a deflationary psychology taking hold particularly in Europe and Japan. Policymakers, despite having adjusted their views, still overestimate the extent to which neutral real interest rates will rise.这是重要的进步,导致了更为审慎的货币政策,并避免了通缩心理的形成,特别是在欧洲和日本。政策制定者们尽管观点有所转变,但仍然高估了中性实际利率将会上升的幅度。Neutral real interest rates may well rise over the next few years as the American economy creates jobs at a rapid rate and the effects of the financial crisis diminish. This is what many expect, though the fact that an imminent return towards historically normal interest has been widely expected for the past six years should invite scepticism.随着美国经济快速创造就业,以及金融危机的影响消退,中性实际利率很可能在今后几年出现上升。许多人都是这么预期的,然而过去6年里人们也普遍预期利率即将回归历史正常水平,这种情况应该激起人们的怀疑心理。A number of considerations make me doubt the US economy’s capacity to absorb significant increases in real rates over the next few years. First, they were trending down for 20 years before the crisis started and have continued that path since. Second, there is at least a significant risk that as the rest of the world struggles there will be substantial inflows of capital into the US leading to downward pressure on rates and upward pressure on the dollar, which in turn reduces demand for traded goods.出于种种考虑,我怀疑美国经济在今后几年承受实际利率大幅上升的能力。首先,实际利率在危机开始前有20年处于下降通道,而且危机以后又继续下降。其次,至少存在一个巨大风险,即在全球其他地区经济增长乏力的情况下,资本将会大量流入美国,引发利率的下行压力和美元的上行压力,这反过来将减少对贸易商品的需求。Third, the increases in demand achieved through low rates in recent years have come from pulling demand forward, resulting in lower levels of demand for the future. For example, lower rates have accelerated purchases of cars and other consumer durables and created apparent increases in wealth as asset prices inflate. In a sense, monetary easing has a narcotic aspect. To maintain a given level of stimulus requires continuing cuts in rates.第三,最近几年由低利率带来的需求增长实际上是预了需求,将导致未来需求水平下降。例如,利率下降刺激消费者提前购买汽车和其他耐用消费品,而随着资产价格上升,财富也明显增加。从某种意义上来说,货币宽松有着起到麻醉作用的一面。要保持既定水平的刺激,就需要继续削减利率。Fourth, profits are starting to turn down and regulatory pressure is inhibiting lending to small and medium sized businesses. Fifth, inflation mismeasurement may be growing as the share in the economy of items such as heathcare, where quality is hard to adjust for, grows. If so, apparent neutral real interest rates will decline even if there is no change in properly measured rates.第四,利润开始下降,同时监管压力正在抑制对中小企业的放贷。第五,随着医疗保健等务在经济中的比重增长,在衡量通胀时误差会越来越多。若情况果真如此,表面的中性实际利率将会下降,即便正确衡量的利率没有任何改变。All of this leaves me far from confident that there is substantial scope for tightening in the US and there is probably even less scope in other parts of the industrialised world. The fact that central banks in countries, including Europe, Sweden and Israel, where rates were zero found themselves reversing course after raising rates adds to the cause for concern.所有这些都让我很难相信美国有巨大的紧缩空间,其他工业化国家的紧缩空间甚至可能更小。有一种情况让人更有理由担忧:欧洲、瑞典和以色列等地的央行曾经实行零利率,它们在加息之后就又改变了做法。But there is a more profound worry. The experience of the US and others suggests that once a recovery is mature the odds of it ending within two years are about half and of it ending in less than three years over two-thirds. As normal growth is below 2 per cent rather than the historical near 3 per cent, the risk may even be greater. While recession risks may seem remote given rapid growth, no postwar recession has been predicted a year ahead by the Fed, the administration or the consensus forecast.但还有一种更深层次的担忧。美国和其他国家的经历表明,一旦复苏进入成熟阶段,它在两年内结束的几率大约为一半,在不到三年内结束的几率超过三分之二。由于正常增长低于2%而不是历史上的近3%,风险可能更大。尽管鉴于增长迅速,衰退风险似乎很遥远,但二战后的任何一次衰退,不论美联储、政府还是共识预测,都不曾提前一年预测到。History suggests that when recession comes it is necessary to cut rates more than 300 basis points. I agree with the market that the odds are the Fed will not be able to raise rates 100 basis points a year without threatening to undermine recovery. Even if this were possible, the chances are very high that recession will come before there is room to cut rates enough to offset it. The knowledge that this is the case must surely reduce confidence and inhibit demand.历史表明,当衰退来临时,就有必要降息逾300个基点。我赞同市场的这种观点,即美联储大概无法一年加息100个基点还能不破坏经济复苏。即便有此可能,在美联储能够及时大幅降息以阻止经济衰退之前,极有可能衰退已经降临。对于这种情景的认知必定会打击信心并抑制需求。Central bankers bravely assert that they can always use unconventional tools. But there may be less in the cupboard than they suppose. The efficacy of further quantitative easing in an environment of well-functioning markets and aly very low medium-term rates is highly questionable. There are severe limits on how negative rates can become. A central bank forced back to the zero lower bound is not likely to have great credibility if it engages in forward guidance.央行官员们大胆宣称,他们总是可以使用非传统工具。但可动用的工具可能比他们预料的要少。在市场运转良好、中期利率已非常低的环境里,进一步量化宽松的效力非常令人怀疑。利率能够达到的负值有很大限制。被迫退回到零利率下限的央行公信力不会太好,如果它发布前瞻性指引的话。The Fed will in all likelihood raise rates this month. Markets will focus on the pace of its tightening. I hope their response will involve no great turbulence. But the unresolved question that will hang over the economy is how policy can delay and ultimately contain the next recession. It demands urgent attention from fiscal as well as monetary policymakers.美联储很可能在本月提高利率。市场将关注其紧缩步伐。我希望市场做出的回应不会造成巨大的震荡。但一个困扰美国经济的问题没有得到解决,那就是如何利用政策延迟、并最终遏制下一场衰退。这需要财政及货币政策制定者立即重视起来。 /201512/415152井冈山市妇幼保健人民医院双眼皮多少钱Donald Trump suggested on Sunday that the US could pull out of the World Trade Organisation and said that the EU had been created largely to compete against the US in international trade.上周日,唐纳德#8226;特朗普(Donald Trump)暗示,美国可以退出世界贸易组织(WTO)。他还表示,欧盟(EU)的建立在很大程度上是为了与美国在国际贸易中竞争。In an interview with N, the Republican presidential candidate said that the US might withdraw from the WTO if his plans to use tariffs to bring factories back from Mexico were challenged.在接受美国全国广播公司(N)采访时,这位共和党总统候选人表示,如果自己利用关税将工厂从墨西哥迁回美国国内的计划遭遇挑战,美国可能会退出WTO。Mr Trump has made trade a central part of his populist economic message and has in the past threatened to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement and levy tariffs on Chinese goods. His comments on WTO appeared to take his anti-free trade rhetoric up a further notch.特朗普已将贸易当作其民粹主义经济理念的核心内容之一,他以前曾威胁要让美国退出《北美自由贸易协定》(North American Free Trade Agreement)、并对中国商品征收高额关税。此番关于WTO的言论,似乎进一步抬高了其反自由贸易的调门。Mr Trump said he would consider imposing a tax of 15-35 per cent on US companies that had moved manufacturing to Mexico. Asked if such a policy would not contravene WTO rules, he replied: “It doesn’t matter. Then we’re going to renegotiate or we’re going to pull out. These trade deals are a disaster, the World Trade Organisation is a disaster.”特朗普表示,他将考虑对已将生产迁至墨西哥的美国公司加征税率为15%至35%的税。当被问及此类政策是否与WTO规则冲突时,他回答说:“没关系。届时我们将重新谈判,或者退出。这些贸易协定是一场灾难,WTO是一场灾难。”Remarking that he was “the only one of all of these people at the higher level of the wonderful world of politics” who predicted a British vote for Brexit, Mr Trump said he was not worried about the risk of the EU fracturing.在谈及自己是“奇妙的政治世界所有高层人士中唯一一个”预测到英国公投会决定退欧的人时,特朗普表示,他并不担心欧盟分裂的风险。“Don’t forget, Europe got together, why, primarily did they get together? So that they could beat the ed States when it comes to making money, in other words, foreign trade,” he said.“别忘了,欧洲联合在一起,他们当初为什么联合起来?这样做他们就能在赚钱——也就是对外贸易——方面击败美国,”他说。“Hey, I love Europe, I have property in Europe. I’m just saying, the reason that it got together was like a consortium so that it could compete with the ed States.”“嘿,我爱欧洲,我在欧洲有财产。我只是在说,欧洲联合起来就是为了像一个集团一样,这样就能与美国竞争。” /201607/456430吉州区妇幼保健人民医院治疗青春痘多少钱吉安市人民医院割双眼皮多少钱

吉安哪里激光脱毛好吉安市全切双眼皮磨削疤痕精切双眼皮哪家便宜价格South Korea, Germany and Japan are among the countries most at risk from an upsurge in Chinese manufacturing competitiveness that is likely to flow from Beijing’s top-level strategy to become a high-tech power by 2025, a German think-tank has found.德国一家智库发现,北京方面到2025年将中国打造成为高科技强国的顶层战略可能大幅提升其国内制造业的竞争力,在这个过程中,韩国、德国和日本等国家最可能遭受冲击。While inefficiencies in resource allocation and deficiencies in innovation are likely to hamper realisation of the “Made in China 2025” plan, a deep pool of available funding and powerful political backing are set to elevate a clutch of Chinese manufacturers to the world’s top echelon, according to a report by The Mercator Institute for China Studies (Merics), a Berlin-based think-tank.尽管资源配置低效和创新匮乏可能阻碍“中国制造2025”计划的实现,但柏林一家智库墨卡托中国研究中心(Mercator Institute for China Studies)的报告显示,大量资金来源和有力的政治持将会把一批中国制造商推升至世界顶级水平。“Even if Made in China 2025 will not fully accomplish its objective of achieving the widesp application of smart manufacturing in the next decade, the plan will develop an enormous impact that will be felt not only in China but throughout the global economy,” said the report, which is published on Wednesday.这份发表于周三的报告称:“即便中国制造2025计划不会完全实现下个十年广泛普及智能制造的目标,它也会产生巨大的影响,不只是在中国,整个全球经济都会感受到这种影响。”“Industrial countries should have no illusions: Made in China 2025 will elevate a small but powerful group of Chinese manufacturers, dramatically increasing their competitiveness,” the report added.报告补充称:“工业国家不应有任何幻想:中国制造2025计划将提升一小批实力强大的中国制造商,极大地增强它们的竞争力。”The Czech Republic, Germany, Italy, Hungary, Japan and South Korea are most at risk from the strategy because each of them derives more than 40 per cent of the value of their industrial output from the high-tech and medium-tech industries that are targeted in China’s plan (see chart).捷克共和国、德国、意大利、匈牙利、日本和韩国最容易受到中国这一战略的影响,因为它们的工业产值中都有超过40%的份额来自在该战略中被当作目标的中高等科技行业。The Merics report, which was based on an examination of policy documents, expert journals and newspaper articles, as well as more than 60 interviews with Chinese experts, finds that one clear aim of the industrial strategy is to cultivate domestic champions to replace the sales by foreign companies in China.墨卡托报告是在对政策文件、专业期刊和媒体报道的研究以及对中国专家60多次采访的基础上写成的。该报告发现,中国工业战略的一个明确目标是培育国内冠军企业,来取代在华外企的销售。“Industrial policy in China often entails measures to discriminate against foreign enterprises,” the Merics report said. “For instance, the national and local governments restrict access to public procurement and limit the possibility of inward-directed foreign-direct investment.”墨卡托在报告中表示:“中国的工业政策往往涉及对外国企业的歧视措施。例如,中央和地方政府限制外资进入公共采购领域,并限制外商直接投资进入中国的可能性。”Such measures are not yet prevalent in the areas of “smart” manufacturing, including robotics, industrial software, sensors and others, because most Chinese companies are currently too backward to benefit. But this could change as domestic companies climb the technology ladder and move into direct competition with foreign corporations in China.此类歧视措施在“智能”制造领域(包括机器人、工业软件、传感器以及其他)还不盛行,因为大多数中国企业当前在这个领域还过于落后而无法从歧视措施中受益。但随着企业技术升级,与在华外企展开直接竞争,这种情况可能发生改变。Such an intent, the report says, can be seen in a semi-official document called Made in China 2025 Key Area Technology Roadmap, which has been endorsed by Ma Kai, a vice-premier and the official heading the interministerial Leading Small Group for Constructing a Manufacturing Superpower.报告称,这种意图可以在《lt;中国制造2025gt;重点领域技术路线图》这个半官方文件中看到。该路线图得到中国副总理马凯的持,后者还担任跨部门的“国家制造强国建设领导小组”的组长。The semi-official document shows aggressive targets for market share in selected industries (see chart below), as well as the range of industries targeted.这个半官方文件中列出了在一些特定行业(见下表)要取得的市场份额的远大目标,以及目标行业的范围。Indications of strong state support are reinforced by funding being made available to spur Chinese innovation in smart manufacturing. The Advanced Manufacturing Fund, established this year, was approved by the State Council (cabinet) and is charged with spending its Rmb20bn allocation on upgrading the technology of important industries.大量资金被用于激励智能制造领域的创新,这进一步显示出国家的大力持。今年成立的“先进制造产业投资基金”(Advanced Manufacturing Fund)是经中国国务院批准的,肩负着利用200亿元人民币进行重点行业技术升级优化的使命。Another fund, the National Integrated Circuit Fund, has capital of Rmb139bn at its disposal and the Emerging Industries Investment Fund, which was also approved by the State Council, has Rmb40bn to spend on promising domestic companies.另一只基金——国家集成电路产业投资基金(National Integrated Circuit Fund)拥有1390亿元人民币的可配资金,还有同样由国务院批准的新兴产业创业投资引导基金(Emerging Industries Investment Fund)有400亿元人民币用于扶持国内新秀企业。The Merics report suggests that such assistance, plus the ability of some companies to undertake acquisitions of industry leaders overseas, is likely to catapult some Chinese manufacturing giants into the vanguard of global technology.墨卡托报告中提出,此类持,再加上一些公司在海外收购行业领军者的能力,可能将一些中国制造业巨头推向全球科技先锋之列。Home appliance firms such as Haier, Hisense, Midea and Gree are potential frontrunners, with each of them aly engaged in turning their fridges, televisions, air conditioners, washing machines and other gadgets into “smart” products by adding internet connectivity that allows, for instance, consumers to order shopping from their fridge or control their washing machine from a mobile phone.海尔(Haier)、海信(Hisense)、美的(Midea)和格力(Gree)等家电企业是潜在的领跑者,它们都已经在将冰箱、电视、空调、洗衣机以及其他设备转化为“智能”产品,让它们联上互联网,使消费者可以进行多种操作,比如从冰箱订购商品或者用手机控制洗衣机。In the construction industry, companies such as Sany and Zoomlion, for example, possess advanced production processes while car component maker, Weichai, owns advanced hydraulic technology, and steelmaker Baosteel has developed several advanced techniques that make for greater precision and efficiency in steel smelting.在建筑行业,三一重工(Sany)和中联重科(Zoomlion)等公司拥有先进的生产流程,同时汽车零部件制造商潍柴集团(Weichai)拥有先进的液压技术,钢铁制造商宝钢(Baosteel)发展出数项先进技术,有利于提高钢铁冶炼的精度和效率。The confluence of funding for innovation, official support and access to overseas acquisitions is set to galvanise an aly active patent application process among Chinese companies.鼓励创新的资金、官方持以及能够前往海外并购等因素,激励了中国企业本就活跃的专利申请。Although questions persist over the quality of Chinese patent applications filed, the predominance of filings outstanding (see chart) for traditional robots and communications devices such as wireless sensors and smart sensors shows a correlation with state support in these areas, according to the report. In advanced robots, however, Chinese technology remains well behind US and German technology.尽管对中国申请的专利质量质疑不断,但该报告称,传统机器人以及无线传感器和智能传感器等通信设备的专利申请数量占很大比重与这些领域的政府持有关。然而,在先进机器人领域,中国技术依然远远落后于美国和德国技术。The data above was collected for so called “Industry 4.0” products, which is to say products or technologies in the automation and data exchange categories, including the internet of things and cloud computing.上述数据是为所谓的“工业4.0”产品收集的,这个概念指的是自动化和数据交换类别的产品或技术,包括物联网和云计算。 /201612/484308Asian and Russian homebuyers who once made up a third of those buying property in London’s wealthiest areas have largely deserted the market this year as emerging market currencies plunged against sterling.曾经占伦敦最富裕地区三分之一购房者的亚洲和俄罗斯买家今年基本上放弃了这一市场,原因包括新兴市场货币兑英镑汇率大幅下挫。Properties in boroughs such as Kensington, where the average home price is 1.5m, were a sought-after asset among wealthy buyers seeking an investment in a global, politically stable city.房屋均价在150万英镑的肯辛顿(Kensington)等区的房产,曾经是寻求在政治稳定的全球城市置业的富裕买家们追捧的资产。But that has changed in 2015, in a shift that estate agents said was partly down to turmoil in emerging markets and partly to sweeping changes to stamp duty, increasing the rate for those buying homes worth more than 937,000 This includes rates of 10 per cent on the portion of the sale price above 925,000 and 12 per cent on the part above 1.5m.但这种情形在2015年发生了改变。房产经纪称,这种转变部分源自新兴市场的动荡,还有一部分原因在于英国印花税的大幅度改革——提高买价超过93.7万英镑的房产的税率。售价介于92.5万至150万英镑之间的部分执行10%的税率,超过150万英镑的部分按12%缴纳印花税。Asians made up 26 per cent of those buying homes in areas such as Kensington, Chelsea and Belgravia in the first three-quarters of last year, but that fell to 6 per cent in the same period of 2015, according to figures compiled exclusively for the Financial Times by Hamptons, a high-end estate agent. Chinese buyers were down from 9 per cent of the total to 3 per cent and Russians were down from 7 per cent to 1 per cent.高端房产经纪公司汉普顿斯(Hamptons)专门为英国《金融时报》汇编的数据显示,去年前三季度,在肯辛顿、切尔西(Chelsea)以及贝尔格拉维亚(Belgravia)等高档区购房的人群中,亚洲买家占26%,而这一比例在2015年同期下降至6%。中国买家的比例从9%下降至3%,俄罗斯买家从7%降至1%。The fall has coincided with a period of turbulence in Chinese equity markets, which sp to other Asian emerging markets, prompting falls in the region’s currencies against sterling. China’s renminbi is down 6.6 per cent since April.购房人数的减少正值中国股市动荡时期,此轮股市暴跌还蔓延至其他亚洲新兴市场,导致该地区货币兑英镑汇率出现下挫。自今年4月以来,人民币汇率已下跌6.6%。In Russia, the war in Ukraine and international sanctions, together with lower oil prices, have taken a big toll on the country’s economy. The rouble has shed 25 per cent against sterling since April and is down 53 per cent over the past two years.在俄罗斯,乌克兰战争、国际制裁以及油价下跌对该国经济造成了巨大破坏。自4月以来,卢布兑英镑汇率已下跌25%,过去两年间累计下跌了53%。Transactions in prime London boroughs were down 19 per cent in the first three-quarters of 2015 against a year earlier, according to LonRes research.研究公司LonRes提供的数据显示,2015年前三季度,伦敦高档区的房产交易量同比下降了19%。 /201511/411924吉安治疗色斑多少钱吉安抽脂多少钱

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