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Instruments as Investments是乐器,也是投资His father was skeptical. His mother worried he would drive the family business into turmoil.他的父亲表示怀疑。他的母亲担心他会把家族生意搞得一团糟。But Nick Liu, a 26-year-old heir to a large musical instrument company in eastern China, was determined. He would open a store focused exclusively on selling the brand of pianos he had worshiped during his days as a budding concert pianist.不过,26岁的刘骋心意已决。他是中国东部一家大型乐器行的继承人。他想开一家店,专门销售他作为音乐会钢琴演奏者初露头角时最崇拜的钢琴品牌。Mr. Liu’s father had tried selling Steinway pianos a decade earlier with limited success. The concept of a high-end instrument is unfamiliar in a country where the average income for a middle-income family is about ,000, according to a report last year by Goldman Sachs. Most people won’t spend more than ,000 on a piano.十年前,刘的父亲曾尝试销售施坦威钢琴,不太成功。据高盛公司(Goldman Sachs)去年的一份报告,中国中等收入家庭的年均收入约为1.2万美元,高端乐器的概念在中国并不为人们所熟悉。大部分人不会购买超过1000美元的钢琴。Mr. Liu, who studied piano and finance at Wake Forest University in North Carolina, sensed an opportunity. He believed that China’s nouveaux riches were in the market for new symbols of wealth. “I knew rich people wanted something more subtle to show their taste and sophistication,” he said.刘曾在北卡罗来纳州的韦克福里斯特大学(Wake Forest University)学习钢琴和金融。他看到了商机。他认为,中国的暴发户正在市场上寻找新的财富象征。“我知道有钱人想要一些更精致的东西来展示自己的品味和修养,”他说。Shortly after New Year’s Day last year, in a sleepy business complex in Ningbo that housed a fine-wine store and an art gallery, Mr. Liu opened a Steinway dealership, the latest addition to his family’s business empire, Tianmu Music.去年新年之后不久,刘在宁波一个安静的商业综合楼里开设了一家施坦威专营店,这是他的家族企业天目琴行的最新分。这个商业楼里还有一家高档红酒店和一个画廊。Mr. Liu found the space with the help of Wang Zhaochun, a technology executive and one of Steinway’s most enthusiastic Chinese customers, who owned the building.刘在王兆春的帮助下找到了这个空间。王是一家技术公司的总裁,是施坦威最热心的中国顾客之一,也是这座商业楼的所有者。Mr. Wang was an avid fan of sports cars and watches. But his latest obsession was a red Steinway concert grand piano valued at more than 0,000, which he showed off to friends in a private salon decorated with fur rugs and bottles of Royal Salute whisky on the building’s ninth floor.王是跑车和手表的狂热爱好者。不过他最近痴迷的是一架红色施坦威音乐会三角钢琴,价值超过30万美元。他在这座商业楼九层的一个私人会客厅里向朋友们炫耀这架钢琴,会客厅里装饰着皮毛小地毯和一瓶瓶皇家礼炮威士忌(Royal Salute)。“I wanted to buy something special,” Mr. Wang said. “It’s just like a Rolls-Royce.”“我想买点特别的东西,”王说,“它就像劳斯莱斯。”In his store on the ground floor, Mr. Liu arranged dozens of pianos, polishing them with cloths made of chicken skin to make each look as seductive as possible. He turned an empty wall into a timeline of Steinway history, beginning with a portrait of Henry E. Steinway, the company’s founder, in a top hat and holding a cane. He created a mock living room, complete with Steinway-branded teacups and tissue boxes, to help customers visualize high-end pianos in their own homes.刘在底层的店里布置了几十架钢琴,用鸡皮做成的布擦拭它们,让每架钢琴尽可能看起来充满诱惑力。他在一面空白的墙上展示施坦威大事记,开头是公司创始人亨利#8226;E#8226;施坦威(Henry E. Steinway)的肖像,他戴着大礼帽,拿着手杖。他还设计了一个模拟客厅,布置着施坦威品牌的茶杯和纸巾盒,帮助顾客想像自己家里有一架高端钢琴的样子。Yet Mr. Liu struggled to make a sale. “It was hell,” he said. “No customers, just three employees in the store and me.”不过,刘的销售情况不佳。“很糟糕,”他说,“没有顾客,店里只有三名员工和我。”His sales team, accustomed to using a pushy manner to peddle far cheaper products, had difficulty connecting with elite customers. Mr. Liu, a classically trained pianist, felt more comfortable speaking about the musical aspects of the instruments than investment value.他的销售团队习惯于采用纠缠不休的方式兜售便宜得多的产品,很难与高端顾客建立联系。刘是一位受过正规训练的钢琴演奏者,他更喜欢谈论乐器的音乐价值而非投资价值。Selling a Steinway in China is a particularly trying task. Unlike sports cars or watches, pianos are not easy to show off. Many older people in China never developed a talent for playing the piano. The instrument was shunned during the Cultural Revolution, and widesp poverty in the ensuing decades made it inaccessible to many Chinese families.在中国销售施坦威尤为困难。不像跑车或手表,钢琴不好炫耀。很多年龄稍长的中国人从未开发过弹钢琴的天赋。“文革”期间,人们对这种乐器避而远之,在之后的数十年里,中国家庭普遍贫穷,买不起钢琴。Steinway has depended on salesmen in more than 25 cities to educate and excite its customers. The company has instructed them to play up the potential return on investment of a Steinway — a message that resonates strongly with frugal Chinese families — and to speak at length about the company’s history.施坦威依靠在超过25个城市的销售人员教育和激励顾客。公司指导销售员强调购买施坦威钢琴的潜在投资回报——这一点在节俭的中国家庭中很能引起共鸣——并详细讲述该公司的历史。Mr. Liu thought back to his days as an intern in China selling English lessons to working-class families. He remembered the time he had sold more than ,000 worth of lessons to a woman who made only 0 a month.刘回想起自己在中国当实习生时向工薪家庭推销英语课程的情形。他记得,有一次,他把价值6000多美元的课程推销给一个月薪仅为460美元的女人。“That was an achievement,” he said. “It was like ‘The Wolf of Wall Street.’ You have to figure out their motivations and their pressure point.”“那是一种成就,”他说,“就像《华尔街之狼》(The Wolf of Wall Street)。你必须找出他们的动力和压力点。”Mr. Liu invited families in for concerts. He began courting music teachers and local performers. He recruited a Bentley salesman to help market the pianos to affluent customers.刘邀请家庭观看音乐会。他开始讨好音乐教师和当地演奏者。他聘请了一名宾利(Bentley)销售员,帮助向富有顾客推广钢琴。“We had to convince them that pianos should be a noble good, not something people buy from the grocery store,” he said.“我们必须说他们,钢琴是一种高贵的东西,不是从杂货店买的那种东西,”他说。By March, Mr. Liu had made his first sale, and he was beginning to learn to accommodate the peculiar requests of his clients. A customer called one morning to say she wanted to buy a grand piano costing more than ,000. But there was a catch: She demanded that it be delivered at 8 p.m. that same day, on the advice of her spiritual master, who had said that time would accord with the laws of feng shui.3月,刘售出了第一架钢琴,并开始学着适应客户的特殊要求。一天早上,一名客户打电话说她想买一架钢琴价格超过2万美元的钢琴。但有个难题:按照她找的大师的建议,她要求在当天晚上8点送到,在那个时间入户有利于风水。Mr. Liu scrambled to make it happen.刘竭尽全力满足了这个要求。By December, Mr. Liu had sold 50 pianos at his store in Ningbo. In his office, he kept a supply of single-malt whiskey he sometimes used to celebrate milestones. At the end of his first year, it had begun to run low.到12月,刘在宁波的店面已经卖出50架钢琴。在他的办公室里常备单一麦芽威士忌,有时被用来庆祝达到某个销售里程碑。在第一年年底,威士忌已经所剩不多。‘A Fighting Hero’“战斗英雄”In a sleek office tower in the heart of Beijing’s high-tech hub, 60 engineers and 20 musicians work day and night to perfect a product they hope will one day compete with traditional instruments from makers like Steinway.在北京的高科技中心的一座豪华写字楼里,60名工程师和20名乐师日以继夜地完善一种产品,他们希望有一天它能与施坦威这种传统乐器制造商的产品竞争。The device is a smart piano known as the One, and it uses synchronized lights and games to show children how to play the piano — no teacher required. With a compact design and a price starting around 0, it has proved to be popular among Chinese parents; the company sold 85,000 units in two years.这是一种智能钢琴,名为the One。它使用跟灯模式和来向孩子们展示如何弹钢琴——不需要老师。The One外形小巧,起价600美元,事实明,它受到了中国家长的青睐,两年就销售了逾8.5万架钢琴。Founded by an engineer with no background in music, the company that produces the One, Xiaoyezi Technology, has not been shy about its ambitions. “Witness the rebirth of the classical piano,” s one advertisement.The One是由一位没有音乐背景的工程师创办的,这个名为小叶子科技的公司的雄心在一个广告中一览无余:见古典钢琴的重生。There are now some 300,000 digital pianos in China, about the same number as acoustic pianos. Some forecasts say the total could reach one million within five years.现在中国消费者拥有30万架数字钢琴,与声学钢琴的数目大抵相同。一些人预测说,五年内这个数字将达到100万架。For generations, Steinway has thrived by ignoring competitors claiming to have reinvented the piano. But the surging popularity of digital pianos like the One, as well as concerns that a slowing Chinese economy could hurt demand, have prompted the company to reconsider.几十年来,施坦威无视那些自称重新创造了钢琴的竞争对手,一直发展得有声有色。但随着the One这种数字钢琴的兴起,以及担心中国经济放缓可能减缓需求,该公司已经开始重新考虑这个问题。In Beijing this month, Steinway unveiled a product that executives heralded as one of the most significant innovations in the company’s 163-year history: Spirio, an acoustic piano equipped with a digital brain so that it can play without human intervention.施坦威本月在北京推出了一个产品,被高管们誉为该公司163年历史上最重要的创新之一:配备了数字大脑的声学钢琴Spirio,它可以播放音乐,完全无需人工干预。Spirio, which starts at about 7,000 in China, traces its roots to a generation of player pianos that filled homes across America in the early 1900s, the golden age of pianos. It was a time when jazz and ragtime flew off the keys, and Steinway was producing more than 6,000 pianos a year, triple what it makes today.在中国起价约为14.7万美元的Spirio,起源可追溯至上世纪初全美几乎一户一台的那一代自动钢琴。那是钢琴的黄金时代,琴键间流淌着爵士乐和雷格泰姆音乐,施坦威一年生产的钢琴超过6000架,是现在的三倍。Steinway sees China as the best shot at rekindling the fervor of that era. Indeed, for two months last year, the company sold more grand pianos in China than in the ed States.施坦威认为中国最有可能重新点燃那个时代对钢琴的热情。的确,在去年的两个月里,该公司在中国售出的三角钢琴超过了美国的销量。In a somewhat frustrating sign of the company’s growing popularity in China, imitators have began cropping up, including small piano shops that have repurposed Steinway’s lyre logo. One company even usurped the brand name to sell water heaters for showers with built-in televisions.一个有些让人心烦的迹象表明了公司在中国的受欢迎程度:模仿者开始涌现了,包括将施坦威的里尔琴标志用于其他目的的小型琴行。一家公司甚至用该商标销售安装了内嵌电视的淋浴热水器。But Steinway executives face a persistent worry. No matter how much money the company spends promoting its craftsmanship, no matter how many performers endorse its pianos, China’s middle class might ultimately be unwilling to make the leap to high-end instruments.但施坦威的高管面临一个由来已久的担忧。不管该公司花多少钱宣传自己的工艺,也不管有多少演奏者称赞他们的钢琴,中国的中产阶级最终可能还是不愿一跃选择高端乐器。“When you rule the piano world for 160 years, you can get complacent,” said Mr. Husmann, the company executive. “It can lead to a mentality of, ‘Everyone needs a Steinway anyway.’ Steinway has to be a fighting hero — we have to fight every day for our business.”“统领钢琴界160年,可能会让人沾沾自喜,” 该公司首席执行官胡斯曼说。“可能会让人产生一种‘反正每个人会买一台施坦威’的心理。施坦威必须成为一名战斗英雄,我们每天都必须为了生意而战斗。”Du Ruizhe, a 15-year-old piano student in Beijing, was the model of a next-generation Steinway customer. She grew up revering the Steinway name, associating it with great pianists like Arthur Rubinstein. She practiced five hours a day — six on weekends — and was ecstatic when she learned she had qualified for the Steinway piano competition in Ningbo.15岁的杜睿哲(音)是北京一名学习钢琴的学生。她是典型的下一代施坦威用家。她在对施坦威这个品牌的崇拜中长大,将其等同于像阿图尔#8226;鲁宾斯坦(Arthur Rubinstein)那样的伟大钢琴家。她每天练五个小时琴——周末六个小时。得知有资格参加在宁波举行的施坦威钢琴比赛时,她欣喜若狂。But at home, she played on a grand piano made by Kawai, a low-cost Japanese maker. Steinway pianos, she said, were simply too expensive.但在家里,她弹的是一架出自日本廉价钢琴生产商河合(Kawai)的三角钢琴。她说施坦威的钢琴实在太贵了。“It feels like Steinway is getting famous,” said the teenager, who plans to become a piano teacher. “But in many people’s eyes it’s still a luxury, and until that changes, it’s not like we’ll be rushing to get it.”“感觉施坦威越来越有名了,”打算当一名钢琴老师的杜睿哲说。“但在很多人眼里,它依然是一种奢侈品,除非这种看法发生改变,否则我们不会急着去买。” /201607/453653China has at least managed to maintain its score for enforcement at its 2014 level. 中国起码把执法方面的得分维持在了2014年的水平。The ACGA accepts that China’s regulators have become more active.ACGA承认,中国监管机构变得更加积极。The China Securities Regulatory Commission investigated 71 cases of market manipulation in 2015, a near fourfold increase on 2014. 2015年,中国监会(CSRC)调查了71起市场操纵案,几乎是2014年的四倍。In the first half of 2016 it issued 109 sanctions in 88 general enforcement cases, many concerning insider trading and manipulation, an 85 per cent year-on-year rise, and levied fines totalling Rmb2.55bn (7m), almost 20 times the level meted out in the first six months of 2015.2016年上半年,中国监会对88起案件(许多为内幕交易类案件和市场操纵类案件)作出109份处罚,较去年同期增长近85%,罚没款共计25.54亿元人民币(合3.77亿美元),几乎是去年同期的20倍。The Shanghai Stock Exchange also issued 22 public reprimands and criticisms in the first half of 2016, a 150 per cent year-on-year rise, with its Shenzhen counterpart issuing 40 sanctions, a 40 per cent rise.2016年上半年,上交所做出了22次公开谴责和通报批评的处分,比去年同期增加150%;深交所则做出了40次处分决定,同比增加40%。Despite this, the ACGA said two factors prevented China from raising its enforcement score: insufficient resources for enforcement, with regulatory staff typically inexperienced and too thinly sp; and a lack of participation by investors, particularly domestic institutional investors, in voting and company engagement.尽管如此,ACGA表示,两个因素妨碍了中国提高执法得分:一是执行资源不足,监管人员通常缺乏经验,太分散;二是在投票和公司参与方面,投资者、特别是国内机构投资者的参与力度不够。Mr Smith argues that the clampdown on market manipulation ignored the fact that the biggest market manipulator is the Chinese government and the Chinese authorities, the so-called ‘national team’, which gobbled up a huge chunk of the market when stocks crashed in July 2015.史密斯认为,打击市场操纵行为的措施忽视了一个事实,最大的市场操纵者是中国政府当局,即所谓的国家队——2015年7月股市大跌时,国家队吸纳了占整个市场相当大比例的股票。These state-owned financial institutions owned 11.9 per cent of the market at the end of 2015, according to Financial Times analysis of data from Wind Information, a research firm, although this figure has since fallen.英国《金融时报》对研究公司万得资讯(Wind Information)数据的分析显示,2015年底,这些国有金融机构的持股市值占到了股市总市值的11.9%,不过,这一比例之后已有所下降。Overall, Mr Smith describes the Chinese financial system as crony entrepreneurialism with a high degree of state ownership (56 per cent by market capitalisation by his calculations) and strong government control even of companies purported to be run by entrepreneurs.总体而言,史密斯将中国的金融体系描述为裙带企业,国有程度相当高(依照他的计算,占据市值的56%),并且政府甚至对声称是由企业家经营的公司实施强有力的控制。The system is getting more arbitrary and more authoritarian. 体制越来越武断,越来越专制。Minority shareholders are probably more right to be worried about China than anywhere else, he adds.跟任何其他地区相比,中国的小股东很可能更有理由对政府感到担心,他接着说。I think they will do everything they can to make it look as though the A-share market is suitable to be integrated into the MSCI [index]. 我认为,他们将竭尽全力让A股市场看起来适合被纳入MSCI(指数)。They talk a good game [but] there is a difference between rhetoric and reality.他们说得很动听,(但)言辞和现实之间有差异。Mr Smith fears the problem is much larger than China, 然而,史密斯担心,问题不只在于中国。however, saying he would take issue with the ACGA’s view that governance is broadly improving in other Asian countries.他说,他不认同ACGA关于其他亚洲国家的治理状况正在普遍改善的观点。The very big picture is that the whole system has been moving in a much more authoritarian direction. 他表示,大形势是,整个系统一直在朝着更具威权主义色的方向演变。It’s not just China, he says, 这并非仅仅是中国的情形。pointing to developments in the likes of Turkey, Russia, Poland and South Korea.他提到了土耳其、俄罗斯、波兰和韩国等国家出现的变化。I think governance is getting much worse and the risks for minority investors generally are increasing; that is why I don’t particularly like emerging markets at the moment, Mr Smith says.我认为,治理越来越糟糕,小股东的风险总体上在增加;这就是目前我不是特别喜欢新兴市场的原因,史密斯说。Generally everywhere since the global financial crisis the idea that you move in a more liberal direction towards more dispersed control systems and minority investors having a lot of say has gone backwards pretty much everywhere.总体说来,自从全球金融危机以来,在各个新兴市场,关于自由化程度提高、管控制度变得更为零散、少数股东拥有很大发言权的想法在各地都有所消退。Governments are increasingly intervening in a way that disadvantages minority shareholders. 政府越来越多地以不利于小股东利益的方式进行干预。I have been a big believer in indexation [via passive funds] but now is the time not to index EM portfolios. 我历来推崇指数化(通过被动型基金),但现在不是指数化投资于新兴市场组合的合适时机。The index players have no choice [what stocks to buy], Mr Smith adds.指数玩家(对于买什么股票)没有选择,史密斯接着说。Great fall of China 中国得分大幅下滑Corporate Governance Watch scores, 2010 to 2016 (%) 《公司治理观察》报告中各地区得分,2010年至2016年(单位:%)2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 2012 2014 2016Singapore 67 69 64 67 新加坡 67 69 64 67Hong Kong 65 66 65 65 香港 65 66 65 65Japan 57 55 60 63 日本 57 55 60 63Taiwan 55 53 56 60 台湾 55 53 56 60Thailand 55 58 58 58 泰国 55 58 58 58Malaysia 52 55 58 56 马来西亚 52 55 58 56India 49 51 54 55 印度 49 51 54 55South Korea 45 49 49 52 韩国 45 49 49 52China 49 45 45 43 中国 49 45 45 43Philippines 37 41 40 38 菲律宾 37 41 40 38Indonesia 40 37 39 36 印尼 40 37 39 36Source: Asian Corporate Governance Association 资料来源:亚洲公司治理协会 /201611/477159At least five people are dead after a whale watching boat sank Sunday afternoon off Canada#39;s west coast.一艘观鲸船星期日下午在加拿大西部沿海沉没,导致至少五人死亡。It is not yet clear what caused the boat to go down near Tofino, British Columbia, with 27 people on board.这艘观鲸船是在不列颠哥伦比亚省托菲诺附近沉没的,船上载有27人。目前还不清楚造成沉船事故的原因。The Joint Rescue Coordination Center said 21 people were rescued and one was still missing. Most of those rescued were taken to hospitals. A spokeswoman for Island Health said one person was in serious condition, but stable.联合救援协调中心说,21人获救,还有一人下落不明。获救者都被送往医院,其中一人伤势严重,并无生命危险。The boat was operated by Jamie#39;s Whaling Station, which takes people out on boats for several hours in the waters around Vancouver Island to see Gray whales and Humpback whales, according to its website.这艘船由杰米捕鲸站营运。根据其网站的介绍,游客在温哥华岛周围海域坐船好几个小时观看灰鲸和座头鲸。The company said late Sunday it would release more information about the incident later after focusing on the rescue efforts for the passengers and crew.该公司周日晚间表示在集中精力救援乘客及机组人员后,将发布有关事件的详细信息。 /201510/406477Ever since emerging markets became a major asset class in the early 1990s, a parade of potentates, policy makers and corporate chieftains have flocked to the stylish village of Davos in the Swiss Alps in the hope of becoming the latest global meme.自从新兴市场在90年代初成为一项主要资产类别以来,许多当权者、决策者和企业负责人蜂拥前往瑞士阿尔卑斯山区的时髦小镇达沃斯,希望成为全球最新的米姆(meme)。The growth revolution in China, the emergence of oil-driven sovereign wealth in the Middle East and Brazil’s economic miracle have all been celebrated, one time or another, by the global elites who gather at the World Economic Forum in Davos each January to ponder the world.每年1月份全球精英都会聚集在达沃斯参加世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum),对世界大事进行思考。而中国的增长革命、中东地区由石油驱动的主权财富的崛起,以及巴西的经济奇迹都曾得到过他们的欢庆。From 2000 on, the Davos boom and the emerging markets boom have been pretty much one and the same, a living ideal of globalization helped by central banks that have printed trillions of dollars of new money.从2000年以来,达沃斯的红火和新兴市场的繁荣几乎完全是一回事,代表了一种由印制了数万亿美元新钞票的各国央行帮助实现的全球化生活理想。But now, as interest rates in the ed States begin to rise, these dollars have begun to flow out of China, the Middle East and Latin America. Growth rates are stumbling, debt levels rising and geopolitical fears sping.但现在,随着美国利率开始上升,这些钱开始从中国、中东和拉丁美洲流出。新兴市场增长率受挫,债务水平上升,而地缘政治的担忧也在蔓延。Over the last year, the exodus has gathered pace, fed by worries that China will lose control of its currency, the price of oil will drop to a barrel and Brazil’s problems will worsen.过去一年中,大批资金加快了外流的步伐,而这一现象主要由几点担忧引发:中国将失去对货币的控制力、油价将下降到每桶20美元、巴西的问题将更为恶化。And many now say that this rosy, Davos-fueled notion of a world powered by emerging-market growth and innovation needs to be reconsidered.现在许多人提出,需要重新考虑一下这种达沃斯倡议的由新兴市场增长和创新驱动的美好世界的概念。“I have long maintained that the emerging-market hype was oversold when it was clear that what was going on was high commodity prices and cheap money,” said Dani Rodrik, an expert on globalization at the Harvard Kennedy School.“我一直坚持认为,新兴市场热太过头了,很明显不过是大宗商品价格高企、信贷宽松,”哈佛大学肯尼迪学院的全球化问题专家丹尼·罗德里克(Dani Rodrik)说。As for the World Economic Forum in Davos, he said that over the last 10 years it had become an echo chamber of sorts.至于达沃斯世界经济论坛,他认为,在过去10年中,它已成为某种自说自话的回音室。“What we are seeing now is lower growth and policy conflicts between the emerging and the developed world,“ said Mr. Rodrik, who will not be making the trip this time around. “It is going to be a different type of Davos this year.”“我们现在看到的是更低的增长率,以及新兴经济体和发达国家之间的政策冲突,”罗德里克说。这一次他不会去达沃斯参加论坛。“今年的达沃斯将会与往年不同”。Actually, the echo chamber has not been working as advertised. Since January 2010, emerging markets as an investment have produced a poor return. BlackRock’s benchmark exchange traded fund for emerging market stocks is down 25 percent, and most of that decline came in the last year.事实上,这座回音室一直没有达到宣传中的效果。自2010年1月以来,新兴市场的投资回报率相当糟糕。贝莱德集团(BlackRock)的新兴市场股票交易所基准指数基金下跌了25%,而且大部分下跌是在去年发生的。Perhaps the biggest sign that global investors have lost faith is that for the first time since 1988 (when only the bravest souls invested in these countries), investors have pulled more money out of emerging markets than they have put in, according to research by the Institute of International Finance.全球投资者失去信心的最大迹象或许是,根据国际金融研究所(Institute of International Finance)的调查,自1988年(当时只有最胆大的人才敢投资这些国家)以来,投资者在新兴市场撤离的资金首次超过了投入的资金。In an unusually blunt speech in Paris this month, Christine Lagarde, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said that emerging nations needed a new model for growth after years of relying on easy money and high commodity prices.本月在巴黎的一次异常直白的讲话中,国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)表示,在经过多年的宽松货币政策和高企的大宗商品价格后,新兴国家需要一种新的增长模式。“Growth rates are down, and cyclical and structural forces have undermined the traditional growth paradigm,” Ms. Lagarde said. Moreover, she warned, the dollar’s continued strength against just about all emerging-market currencies could well result in a new round of financial uncertainty, pushing commodity prices and global growth forecasts even lower.“增长率在下降,而周期性和结构性力量削弱了传统的增长范式,”拉加德说。此外她还警告,美元对几乎所有新兴市场货币的继续走强很可能导致新一轮的金融不确定性,进一步压低大宗商品价格和全球经济增长预期。Since mid-2011, the dollar has gained more than 100 percent against emerging-market currencies in Turkey, Brazil and South Africa. And over the last six months, following China’s decision to depreciate the renminbi, previously robust monetary units in Singapore, Korea and Taiwan have also started to lose value against the dollar.自2011年年中以来,美元对土耳其、巴西和南非等新兴市场货币的汇率涨幅超过了100%。而在过去的六个月中,在中国决定让人民币走低后,此前新加坡、韩国和台湾等地稳健的货币也纷纷开始对美元贬值。“Our own estimates show that a slowdown of 1 percent in the emerging world would lower growth in advanced countries by at least about 0.2 percentage points,” Ms. Lagarde said.“我们自己的估计显示,新兴市场经济增长每放缓1%,将降低发达国家至少约0.2个百分点的经济增长速度,”拉加德说。Still, even with the gloom and doom surrounding emerging markets these days, there is little sign that standard bearers are forgoing their annual week in the Swiss mountains.不过,尽管如今新兴市场前景暗淡,但几乎没有迹象表明领军人物们会放弃他们每年在瑞士山区度过的为期一周的会议。This year, more than 320 representatives from Brazil, Russia, India and China — the so-called BRIC community of emerging nations — will be in Davos — compared with 237 from these countries in 2010.今年,来自“金砖四国”(BRIC)——巴西、俄罗斯、印度和中国——的320多名代表将出现在达沃斯,而2010年这些国家派出的代表为237人。None of these representatives will be heads of state, though. In the past, Brazilian presidents and Vladimir Putin of Russia have led their countries’ delegations. This year, Russia is sending a deputy prime minister, Yury Trutnev, while China is sending a vice president, Li Yuanchao.不过,这些代表中并没有国家元首。过去,几任巴西总统和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)曾带领本国代表团参会。今年,俄罗斯派出的是副总理尤里·特鲁特涅夫(Yury Trutnev),而中国带队的则是副主席李源潮。Two large emerging markets that have been under significant stress of late will be sending their leaders. Turkey, recently rocked by terrorist attacks, will be represented by its prime minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. And the South African president, Jacob Zuma, who has gone through three finance ministers in the last five weeks, is also planning to show up.近来承受着严重压力的两个大型新兴市场将派出他们的领导人。最近遭受了恐怖袭击的土耳其,将由其总理艾哈迈德·达武特奥卢(Ahmet Davutoglu)带队参加。而在过去五周换了三任财长的南非总统雅各布·祖马(Jacob Zuma),也计划在论坛上露面。The president of Brazil, Dilma Rousseff, whose popularity polls have sunk to single digits, will not be making an appearance, but her recently appointed finance minister, Nelson Henrique Barbosa-Filho, is scheduled to attend.巴西总统迪尔玛·罗塞夫(Dilma Rousseff)在民意调查中受欢迎度已降到个位数,不会在论坛上露面。但她新近任命的财政部长小纳尔逊·恩里克·巴萨(Nelson Henrique Barbosa-Filho)计划出席。Ready to engage in some damage control will be the top executives at BTG Pactual, the Brazilian investment bank whose former chief executive, André Esteves, is under investigation for corruption.巴西投资百达集团(BTG Pactual)的高层管理人员们做好了控制损失的准备。该行的前首席执行官安德烈·埃斯特维斯(André Esteves)正在接受腐败调查。In terms of panels themed for developing nations, the World Economic Forum will be serving up the usual fare this year. One will explore how companies in emerging markets cope with laws that discriminate against lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender workers. Another is more straightforward: What will the impact of higher interest rates in the ed States be on emerging market growth?在为发展中国家设立的全会方面,世界经济论坛将在今年呈上平常的讨论主题。有一个将探讨新兴市场的企业如何应对歧视男女同性恋、双性恋和跨性别员工的法律。另一个更直接:美国利率的提高对新兴市场的增长有何影响?But, as is always the case at the World Economic Forum, the meetings of genuine consequence will be the ones that you do not know are happening.不过,真正重要的,是人们不知道的那些会晤。在世界经济论坛上,向来如此。That could mean Laurence D. Fink, the chief executive of BlackRock, the world’s largest money management firm, sitting down with Jean-Paul Villain, an executive at the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, or Fahad al-Mubarak, the governor of Saudi Arabia’s central bank and overseer of the country’s 0 billion foreign reserve stash.这可能意味着,世界最大的资产管理公司贝莱德的首席执行官劳伦斯·D·芬克(Laurence D. Fink)和阿布扎比投资局(Abu Dhabi Investment Authority)高管让-保罗·维兰(Jean-Paul Villain),或沙特阿拉伯央行行长、负责着该国6500亿美元外汇储备的法赫德·穆巴拉克(Fahad al-Mubarak)会坐下相商。As oil prices sink, rumors have been rife that Middle East sovereign wealth funds — and Saudi Arabia in particular — have been calling in the billions of dollars of cash that they have allocated to global investment firms such as BlackRock. And traders say that the withdrawal of these funds, much of which has been invested in American stocks and bonds, has been a contributing factor to recently volatile markets.随着石油价格下跌,传言四起,宣称中东的主权财富基金,尤其是沙特阿拉伯,在收回投给贝莱德等全球投资公司的数十亿美元。交易人员称,这些基金撤资是导致市场最近不稳定的原因之一。它们当中很多投资了美国的股票和债券。Or the chief executives of Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Chase could wind up huddling with Fang Xinghai, the vice chairman of the China securities regulatory commission. The sharp swings in China’s stock market are having an outsize effect on markets in the ed States, and the big American investment banks will want to hear what Mr. Fang’s strategy is for 2016.或者,高盛(Goldman Sachs)和根大通(JPMorgan Chase)的首席执行官可能会和中国监会副主席方星海碰头。中国股市的剧烈波动极大地影响着美国的市场,而美国的大投行会想听听方星海为2016年谋划的策略。But as central bankers, prime ministers and chief executives wrestle this week to make sense of it all, Ruchir Sharma, head of emerging markets at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, has a fairly simple explanation: The impact on the developed world of a slowdown in China and other emerging markets is going to be greater than most people realize.不过本周,在各大央行高管、政府部长和企业首席执行官努力想要弄明白一切时,根士丹利投资管理公司(Morgan Stanley Investment Management)的新兴市场部门负责人鲁吉·夏尔马(Ruchir Sharma)却给出了一个相当简单的解释:中国等新兴市场放缓对发达国家的影响,会比大部分人认识到的更大。“In 1997, the emerging world’s share of the global economy was 20 percent — now, it’s nearly 40 percent,” he said. “This is a big deal. What happens in China has an effect on the wider world, and I think that the Davos crowd has been slow to recognize this.”“1997年时,新兴市场在全球经济中占的份额是20%,现在则近乎40%,”他说。“这举足轻重。中国发生的事情会影响外部世界,我认为,达沃斯的与会者没有及时意识到这一点。” /201601/424055

China’s land ministry will automatically renew residential leases set to expire next year, temporarily dispelling homeowners’ concerns about an erosion of their property rights.中国国土资源部将对明年到期的住房土地使用权自动续期,这暂时消除了房屋所有者对于产权缩水的担忧。In an announcement at the weekend, the land ministry said that 20-year residential property leases in the eastern city of Wenzhou would be automatically extended without charge, ending speculation that homeowners would face steep renewal fees equivalent to one-third of their property’s value.在上周末的一份声明中,中国国土资源部表示,针对中国东部城市温州的20年住房土地使用权到期问题,不需要提出续期申请,不收取费用。这结束了外界的猜测,即房屋所有者将面临高额的土地出让金,占房产价值的三分之一。Ever since Deng Xiaoping’s landmark economic reforms were introduced in the early 1980s, allowing people to buy land and property for the first time since the 1949 Communist revolution, titles in the world’s most populous country have been limited by fixed-term leases.自从邓小平于上世纪80年代初开展里程碑式的经济改革以来(这是自1949年建国以来中国首次允许人们购买土地和房产),这个全球人口最多的国家的土地所有权一直受到固定租期的限制。The first of these to expire, 20-year leases for residential land in Wenzhou, were a closely watched test of how the renewals would be handled. An earlier suggestion by local officials that renewal fees would be set at one-third of a property’s value sparked an outcry amongst the country’s homeowners, many of whom have become dollar millionaires thanks to the huge run-up in urban real estate prices over recent years.温州的20年土地使用权的住宅用地是首个到期的住宅用地,受到外界的密切关注,它将测试中国政府如何处理土地使用权到期问题。早些时候,一些地方政府官员建议,续期费用将定在房地产价值的三分之一,这引发了中国房屋所有者的强烈抗议,最近几年,城市房价的飙升让很多房屋所有者变成了百万美元富翁。The intervention by China’s housing minister, Wang Guanghua, highlights the political sensitivity of the issue, especially at a time when middle-class concerns over environmental pollution and an increasingly repressive political climate are exacerbating capital flight.国土资源部副部长王广华强调了这个问题的政治敏感性,特别是在中产阶级对环境污染和日益严厉的政治环境的担忧正加剧资金抽逃之际。Most property leases run for 70 years, making Wenzhou’s looming expirations an exception that could have been left for the local government to handle. But China’s wealthy and middle-class urban homeowners are the ruling Communist party’s most important constituency. Nationwide, 90 per cent of households own their own homes.多数住宅建设用地使用权为70年,这让温州的住房土地使用权到期问题变成一个例外,这个问题本可以留给地方政府解决。但中国的富有中产阶级城市房屋所有者是执政党共产党的最重要的持者。从全国来看,90%的家庭拥有自己的住房。Mr Wang’s announcement, however, does not signal a final resolution of the issue. The minister said the government was studying a new law that would regulate lease renewals nationwide.然而,王广华的声明并不表明这个问题得到了最终解决。国土资源部表示,政府正在研究新的法律,来监管全国的土地使用权续期问题。The shorter lease tenures were introduced in Wenzhou in the 1990s to make properties more affordable.上世纪90年代,为了让人们买得起房,温州推出了较短年限的住宅用地使用权。Nationwide, soaring property prices have forced local governments to introduce a series of measures to reduce speculative buying. A recent central government conference on economic issues for the coming years said that “homes are for living in, not for speculating with”.全国房价的飙升迫使地方政府推出一系列举措,以减少投机性购房。最近一次中央政府经济工作会议对2017年的经济工作做出了全面部署,会议称“房子是用来住的,不是用来炒的”。 /201612/485714

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