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明星资讯腾讯娱乐2018年01月17日 01:10:37
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Belgian police have detained three people who took a hostage in the western city of Ghent on Monday. The hostage was released unharmed.比利时警方拘捕了三名涉嫌绑架人质者。这三人涉嫌星期一在西部城市根特绑架了三名人质。人质已安全获释。The motive remains unclear, but a Belgian official said Monday there is no indication the incident is linked to terrorism, the Islamic State or the ongoing hostage situation in a Sydney, Australia, cafe.目前还不清楚绑架的动机,不过比利时官员星期一说,没有迹象显示该事件与恐怖主义、伊斯兰国或是澳大利悉尼的绑架事件有关联。Despite initial reports that the suspects were armed, a spokeswoman for the state prosecutor said no weapons were found.起初有报道说,绑架者带有武器,但比利时检察官的发言人说,并没有发现武器。 /201412/349050

  Rents in Hong Kong, home to some of the world’s most expensive shopping streets, are forecast to fall by up to 20 per cent this year as luxury retailers suffer because of the corruption crackdown and economic slowdown in mainland China.预计今年香港门店租金将最多下跌20%,原因是中国内地的反腐运动和经济放缓令奢侈品零售商受到冲击。全球最昂贵的一些购物街位于香港。Surging Chinese demand for jewellery, watches and designer goods sent rents in Hong Kong’s most famous shopping streets rocketing in recent years, overtaking New York’s Fifth Avenue, Paris’s Champs-#201;lysées and London’s Bond Street.最近几年,中国对珠宝、手表以及设计师产品的需求飙升,推动香港最知名购物街的门店租金直线上涨,超过了纽约第五大道(Fifth Avenue)、巴黎香榭丽舍大街(Champs-#201;lysées)和伦敦邦德街(Bond Street)。But as lower Chinese spending started to hit rents, Hong Kong’s Causeway Bay lost its crown as the world’s most expensive retail district to Fifth Avenue at the end of last year, according to Cushman amp; Wakefield, a property agency.但房地产经纪商高纬环球(Cushman amp; Wakefield)的数据显示,随着中国内地游客削减出的行为开始冲击到门店租金,去年年底,香港铜锣湾将全球最昂贵零售街区的桂冠拱手让与纽约第五大道。Now investment bank Credit Suisse and estate agent Savills expect rents to fall by 20 per cent this year, while JLL, another property company, expects a 10-15 per cent drop.如今,投行瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)和房地产经纪商第一太平戴维斯(Savills)预测,今年香港的门店租金将下跌20%,另一家房地产务公司仲量联行(JLL)预计,租金将下跌10%至15%。“Because of the anti-graft drive in China there are fewer people buying gifts and less show of wealth, at the same time as there’s been a slowdown in the Chinese economy,” said Nick Bradstreet, head of leasing for Savills in Hong Kong. “It’s also become cheaper to buy luxury goods in South Korea, Japan or Europe because of the exchange rate.”“由于中国的反腐运动,购买礼品的人和炫富现象都有所减少,另外中国内地的经济也一直在放缓。”第一太平戴维斯驻香港的租赁业务主管尼克#8226;布拉德斯特里特(Nick Bradstreet)表示,“还有,由于汇率因素,现在在韩国、日本或欧洲购买奢侈品要便宜一些。”Credit Suisse forecasts that retail sales in Hong Kong will fall by 5 per cent this year to HK9bn (.5bn), the biggest annual drop since 2000, with sales of jewellery, watches and luxury goods sliding by 12 per cent.瑞信预测,香港零售额今年将下滑5%,至4690亿港元(合605亿美元),为2000年以来的最大年度降幅。珠宝、手表和奢侈品销售额将下滑12%。In addition to the anti-corruption push and slower economic growth, Chinese tourists have also been deterred because of growing protests against their presence by Hong Kong residents frustrated at the jump in visitor numbers.除了反腐运动和经济增长放缓,中国内地游客还因一些香港居民日益反对他们出现在香港而取消了赴港计划。之前中国内地赴港游客人数激增令这些香港居民感到不满。The number of mainlanders visiting Hong Kong, which is governed semi-independently under the “one country, two systems” arrangement, fell by 10 per cent year-on-year in March, according to the Hong Kong Tourism Board.根据香港旅游发展局(Hong Kong Tourism Board)的数据,今年3月,赴港内地游客人数同比减少10%。香港依照“一国两制”拥有高度的自治权。Joyce Kwock, a property analyst at Credit Suisse, believes falling currencies in Japan, South Korea and the eurozone have accelerated the move away from Hong Kong as more adventurous Chinese tourists fly further afield in search of discounts.瑞信房地产分析师Joyce Kwock认为,日本、韩国以及欧元区汇率的下跌加快了中国内地游客远离香港的速度,越来越多喜欢探索的中国内地游客飞到更遥远的地方寻找打折商品。“Hong Kong street-store rents have been boosted to such a high base in the last few years so they are very vulnerable to a downturn,” she said.她表示:“过去几年,香港购物街门店租金被推升到一个很高的水平,因此很难抵御不景气的冲击。”Analysts believe individual landlords will bear the brunt of the slowdown, while high-end shopping malls have a better chance of sustaining rents because they offer a more varied shopping environment and help retailers with marketing.分析师认为,受冲击最大的将是个人房东,而高端购物商场有更大可能维持租金水平,因为它们可提供更加多样的购物环境并帮助零售商营销。While some landlords and luxury brands including Burberry suffer, cheaper retailers like Zara and Mango could benefit from the opportunity to open in high-profile streets at lower rents.一些房东以及包括柏利(Burberry)在内的奢侈品品牌将受到冲击,但Zara和芒果(Mango)等较低端零售商可能会成为受益者,因为门店租金的降低为它们在知名购物街开店提供了机会。“Fast fashion and affordable cosmetics brands should be able to find good locations that they couldn’t get three years ago,” said Tom Gaffney, head of retail at JLL. “We will see a change in the look of the shopping streets in Hong Kong and that is good for the retail sector because now it’s boring, with so many watch and jewellery stores.”“快速时尚以及平价化妆品品牌应该能够拿到3年前无力负担的好地段。”仲量联行零售业主管汤姆#8226;加夫尼(Tom Gaffney)表示,“我们会看到香港购物街的格局发生变化,这对于零售业是件好事,因为该行业现在有些无趣,手表店和珠宝店太多。” /201505/377691

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  Almost all Chinese provincial-level regions posted faster economic growth in the first half of this year, compared to the first quarter, official data showed.官方数据显示,与第一季度相比,中国大多数省份今年上半年的经济增速较快。Total GDP reached about 29.69 trillion yuan (.65 trillion) in the first half of this year, a year-on-year increase of 7 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).国家统计局数据显示,上半年国内生产总值29.69万亿元(4.65万亿美元),同比增长7.0%。Out of 31 provincial level regions, 27 posted faster growth.在31个省份中,27省GDP上半年增速出现回升。Southwest China#39;s Chongqing municipality registered the fastest GDP growth at 11 percent in the first half year, while the northeast province of Liaoning saw the slowest growth, the NBS said.国家统计局称,今年上半年,中国西南的重庆市GDP增速回升幅度最大,达到了11%,而东北辽宁的增速排名垫底。The provincial-level regions, including Beijing and Hebei province, saw their GDP growth in the first six months rebound from the first quarter, with South China#39;s Hainan province posting the biggest rebound rate by gaining 2.9 percentage points from the growth pace in the first quarter.与当地一季度GDP增速相比,包括北京、河北在内的27个省份上半年的GDP增速出现回升,其中,海南回升幅度最大,增速较一季度提高了2.9个百分点。Only North China#39;s Inner Mongolia autonomous region and Southwest China#39;s Tibet autonomous region saw their GDP growth rate slower than the first quarter by 0.9 and 0.1 percentage points, respectively.仅有西藏、内蒙古这两地上半年GDP增速较一季度出现回落,分别回落了0.9个百分点和0.1个百分点。East China#39;s Shandong and Anhui provinces saw their H1 GDP growth rate unchanged from the first quarter, the NBS data showed.国家统计局数据显示,山东和安徽的上半年GDP增速与一季度持平。Northeast China#39;s Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning provinces were among the bottom of the list for GDP growth, data showed, with Liaoning ranking the last at 2.6 percent growth, indicating lingering downward pressure for the region#39;s economy.数据显示,东北黑吉辽三省的GDP增速排名倒数。其中,辽宁上半年GDP增速为2.6%,排名垫底;这也凸显出了当前东北经济面临着较大的下行压力。In July, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) allocated 50 million yuan (.83 million) to fund major projects in the northeast regions to help the area#39;s stuttering economy. The money will be used for infrastructure, social welfare and environmental protection in Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang provinces as well as Inner Mongolia autonomous region.今年七月,发改委拨款5,000万元(783万美元)来资助东北地区重大项目,来帮助其几近停滞的经济。这笔钱将用于黑吉辽以及内蒙古自治区的基础设施,社会福利,以及环境保护等方面。The northeast is a center for grain production, heavy industry and energy resources in China. Many cities face challenges as their energy resources are depleted and heavy industries face the burden of restructuring.东北是我国粮食生产,重工业,以及能源等方面的中心。很多城市在资源枯竭形势下的重工业重组问题上面临巨大挑战。 /201508/395200In Chinese traditional blind date, the boy and the girl meet each other which is arranged by their parents, then the two fall in love, get married and live happily ever after. Today, the young people like to choose their partners by themselves, there are many dating shows to provide chances for the young people to make friends. But I don#39;t think the shows are reliable.在中国传统的相亲里,男孩和女孩通过家长的安排认识彼此,然后相爱,结婚,从此以后幸福地生活在一起。今天,年轻人喜欢自己选择伴侣,很多相亲节目就给年轻人提供了交朋友的机会。但是我认为这些节目是不可靠的。First, as a show, the first concerned factor is the profit. To make a show, the producer puts the audience in the first place, the more audiences, the more advertisements, the more profit. Thus the director must do something to make the show interesting, then the purpose of dating the young people is not pure, it is more likely to amuse the audiences.第一,作为一个节目,第一考虑要素是利润。为了制作节目,制作方把观众放在了第一位,越多的观众,就越多的广告,带来越多的利润。因此导演必须做一些事情来让节目更加的有趣,让年轻人约会的目的变得不纯净了,更多的是为了大众。Second, the relationship that was built on the stage won#39;t last long. When the young people meet in the stage, they get to know each other in a short time, they can#39;t get fully information about each other. Even they build their relationship on the stage, what will happen in the stage? They will find more defects, realizing they are not matched.第二,建立在台上的感情并不能持久。当年轻人在舞台上相见,他们只能在短时间内彼此了解,并不能全面地了解。即使他们在舞台上建立了感情,台下会发生什么呢?他们会发现缺点,认识到不合适。Dating show is very popular in China, but we must not take it serious, treating them the way to find amusement in casual life.相亲节目在中国很流行,但是我们不必当真,把这当成闲时的消遣方式。 /201507/388072

  Starting with his first novel, “Native Speaker,” the Korean-American author Chang-rae Lee has written of immigrant experiences in the ed States. His latest novel, “On Such a Full Sea,” centers on a Chinese woman named Fan who is a laborer in a city called B-Mor, a future version of Baltimore. The novel is a dystopian tale, set in an era when nations around the world are suffering from overwhelming environmental degradation. Fan is one of tens of thousands of Chinese from smog-choked Shanxi Province who have taken jobs as food production workers in B-Mor to escape their toxic homeland.从小说处女作《母语人士》(Native Speaker)开始,韩裔美国作家李昌来(Chang-rae Lee)写了很多在美国的移民经历。在他的最新小说《在如此完满的大海上》(On Such a Full Sea)中,主人公是一个名叫“范”(Fan)的中国女人,生活在一个名为B-Mor的城市,而B-Mor其实是未来的巴尔的。这部小说讲述了一个反乌托邦的故事,设定各国处在铺天盖地的环境退化灾难之中。范来自雾霾严重的山西省,那里有数以万计的中国人和她一样,逃离环境毒化的家乡,前往B-Mor当食品生产工人。Mr. Lee, who also teaches creative writing at Princeton University, was in Beijing for the annual Bookworm Literary Festival, which runs to March 29. Last Sunday, I hosted a conversation with him that included questions from an audience at the Bookworm. Following are lightly edited excerpts, transcribed by Becky Davis:李昌来在普林斯顿大学(Princeton University)教授创意写作课程,本次他前往北京参加一年一度的老书虫国际文学节(Bookworm Literary Festival)期间,我主持了与他的对话,其中包括书虫节听众的提问。书虫节将于3月29日周日闭幕。以下是稍作编辑的对话摘要,由贝基·戴维斯(Becky Davis)从录音转录为文字。Q. Earlier today, I was at the Chinese prime minister’s press conference. He said China hadn’t done enough on pollution and that he really needs to push forward in the war against pollution. In your latest novel, “On Such a Full Sea,” the future that you envision is one in which China loses the war on pollution. Can you tell us why you see this being the future of the world? 问:今天早些时候,我参加了中国总理的记者招待会。他说,中国在防治污染方面做得不够,他需要大力推动反污染的斗争。在你的最新小说《在如此完满的大海上》中,你设想中国未来在这场斗争中失败。你能讲讲为什么会设定这样的未来世界吗?A. It’s not just China — it’s really everyone, in the book. 答:这不只是中国——在这本书里,其实所有国家都是这样。The book is set some vague number of years ahead, 150 to 200 years, I’m not that specific about it. But I am very specific about the kinds of implications for the people of the society, which is that they all suffer from a certain kind of inevitable disease, which they call “sea,” which is something that’s sort of lurking out there mysteriously. They can’t really address it. And obviously that comes from the violation of the environment.这本书设定了一个不太确切的未来时刻,是未来150到200年之间,我没有把年份弄得很具体。但我非常具体地描述了那个社会的公众所处的境况,即他们全都患上了某种不可避免的疾病,他们称这种疾病为“海”,是一种潜伏在外面的神秘东西。他们没法真正应对这个问题。显然,这种疾病来自环境污染。They’re always talking about being careful about the things that you eat, the water that you drink. One of the conceits of the book is that there is a production facility called B-Mor in the former Baltimore, and this production facility is a facility that provides pristine fishes and vegetables for an elite class of people. And the very fact of its existence is that everything outside is too poisoned and too ruined to trust.他们总是在谈论要小心注意吃的东西,喝的水。书中设定了一个生产基地,名为B-Mor,位于以前的巴尔的。这个生产基地为精英阶层提供未受污染的鱼类和蔬菜。它的存在表明,外面的一切东西都毒化了,受到了毁损,不能信任。I don’t get into the environmental issues very much. There’s some guy who kept writing me every week after the book came out and said, can you just come out and say that this is a “Cli-Fi” novel? I don’t know, he must have had a trademark [on the term] or something. There’s climate anxiety [in the novel], but it’s not that geeky about it. It’s almost a psychic condition, of feeling beleaguered.我没有非常深入地阐释环保问题。这本书出版之后,有个人每周都写信给我,希望我能站出来说这是一本“气候变化小说”。我不清楚,他肯定有个和这个词有关的商标什么的。这本书中涉及了关于气候的焦虑感,但没有达到那种怪咖程度。它差不多算是一种焦头烂额的心理状态。Today, we were just walking around. I bought my first mask here, which I kind of liked. But then I noticed that the mask itself smelled sort of chemically. So I was thinking, maybe the mask is actually worse for you than the air.今天,我们只是到处闲逛了逛。我在这里买了第一个口罩,我还有点喜欢它。但后来我发现,口罩本身就散发出某种化学味道。所以我想,也许对你来说,在这里戴口罩其实比直接呼吸空气更糟糕。Q. You were originally going to write a novel about China but then you took the train past Baltimore, and decided to set it there. In your original conception of the novel, why did you want to set a book in China? You came to China on one or two trips to do some research — could you tell us about that? 问:你本来打算写一本关于中国的小说,但你在有一次乘火车路过巴尔的之后,决定把背景设置在那里。在你最初的小说构思中,为什么要把一本书的背景设置在中国呢?你来了中国一两趟,做了一些调研,能介绍一下这方面的情况吗?A. My original idea was to write a kind of social fabric novel about Chinese factory workers. So in about 2011 or so, I went to Shenzhen. My sister lives in Hong Kong, so it was an easy trip. I sort of finagled my way into a factory. It was a really fascinating visit for me. I hadn’t been to a factory and had all these preconceptions about what I would see. It actually wasn’t so horrible. I don’t know if people have gone to that area — that’s where you know all the factories are, you know. They’re not really factories so much as they are settlements. And this particular settlement, this factory that I went to was a facility that produced tiny electrical motors, the kind that drive a DVD tray or a side-view mirror. So it wasn’t a big, huge industrial complex. It was really more like a campus, but a really grubby one — kind of rundown. There was nothing aesthetically pleasing about it. 答:我最初的想法是写一部关于中国工厂工人的社会结构小说。因此,大约在2011年,我去了深圳。我住在香港,所以去那里很方便。我差不多连哄带骗地进入了一家工厂。对我来说,这次访问真正的很有意义。我之前从没有去过工厂,对于将会在那里看到什么存在各种成见。实际上那里并不是那么可怕。我不知道大家是否去过那里——所有工厂都在那儿。说那是工厂,还不如说是他们的定居点。我去的这家工厂,这个具体的定居点,生产的是驱动DVD拖盘或侧视镜的微型电机。所以,这不是一个非常庞大的工业园区。它看起来更像一个校园,但真的很寒碜,感觉有些破败。毫无美感可言。Q. It wasn’t like Princeton. 问:它和普林斯顿不像。A. No, no. At Princeton, every blade of grass is accounted for. It’s a little creepy. 答:不,不。在普林斯顿,每根草都被解读过。这有点让人起鸡皮疙瘩。Q. That’s a dystopian novel! 问:那才是一部反乌托邦小说!A. Well, dystopias are always about utopias, of course. But this particular place was … it was exactly what I needed for the book I wanted to write. It had a little health center. It had a basketball hoop that was rusty. It had the dining hall. It had the dormitories of course, which housed eight people in one little room, in bunks, with a little hot plate and a plant there. People were trying to make a life out of it, obviously, and choosing to be there. And of course most of the workers were young women. 答:实际上,反乌托邦作品的关键总是乌托邦。但是,这个地方是......正是我想写的这本书所需要的素材。它有一个小型医疗中心。有个锈迹斑斑的篮球架。有食堂。当然还有宿舍,一个小房间住八个人,上下铺,有一些轻便电热炉,还有一株绿植。人们试图在这种状况下过点像样的日子,很明显,他们是自愿待在那里的。当然,大部分工人都是年轻女性。And I was all set to write that novel. I went back to my desk in Princeton and started to write. But I felt as if … and this I’ve got to blame on you guys, journalists who have done such a great job in doing my initial research about all the things that were going on in China. I guess I had always been someone in the last five to seven years who had a lot of interest in China, about all the awesome things that were happening, but also this kind of d about China, about its power, about its environment. All the things that make China special and noticeable.我当时全都准备好了,就要展开写作。我回到普林斯顿的书桌前,开始写小说。但我觉得好像……这得怪你们记者了,为我对中国发生的各种事情做了非常出色的初步调研。我想,在过去五到七年时间里,我一直对中国非常感兴趣,不仅是对中国发生的各种好事,而且也对中国、中国的力量,以及中国的环境怀有一种畏惧。所有这一切让中国显得与众不同,值得注目。So I got back to my desk again and I felt as if I was writing. … You know, the writing was fine. But I think I was writing just basically what you guys [journalists] were writing. I wasn’t adding anything to that story, in my view. I didn’t want to just report on it, because you know, when you’re writing a novel, it’s not just about representation. Of course, when you’re writing a great journalistic piece it’s not just about that either. But the novel, especially as something that needs to be sustained for that many pages, really needs other kinds of angles. You need other kinds of approaches to the material to make it come alive in a way that’s unlikely but is still obviously truthful, and maybe beautiful.所以,我再次回到书桌前,我感觉好像写得……其实写得还行。但我觉得基本上只是在写你们记者写的东西。在我看来,我没有添加任何新东西进去。我不想写出来的只是一个报道,因为,当你写一本小说时,它不仅仅是陈述。当然,当你写一篇出色的新闻文章时,也不能只是进行陈述。但小说,尤其是需要能写很长篇幅的小说,确实需要采用不同类型的角度。你需要不同类型的方法来处理材料,让它看似不可能,但仍然显得很真实,甚至可能还很美妙。I guess I had to admit to myself that that wasn’t happening. For whatever reason. Maybe I just wasn’t imagining the characters right. … You know, I had been so inspired by certain novels like Zola’s “Germinal.” It’s a great novel about coal miners in a town in 19th-century France and their struggles — their battle against the owners and the degradation that they suffered. And I was going to do all that, but I guess I just didn’t have that special, fresh angle on my material. So I put it away, kind of depressed, because I’d done all this work, and I was still excited about it.我想当时我不得不向自己承认,我没有做到这一点。无论原因是什么。也许我只是没有想象出恰当的角色。......你知道,某些小说一直给了我很大的启发,比如左拉(Zola)的名著《萌芽》(Germinal),讲的是19世纪法国一个镇上的煤矿工人以及他们的斗争——他们和矿主做斗争,和他们所处的恶化境况做斗争。我想要写这样一本小说,但我觉得自己还没有找到一个特殊、新鲜的视角来处理素材。所以我停下来,感觉有点郁闷,因为我已经做了这么多工作,不过我还是对这件事劲头十足。That’s when I took this train ride from New York to D.C. For those of you who have not been on that train — it’s the regular train that goes every day, many times a day. Because I’d grown up in the New York area, I’d been on that train for probably 45 years of my life, going back and forth periodically. And for 45 years, I’d always seen, as you roll into Baltimore Penn Station, the east side of Baltimore that’s always been, as I can remember since I was a little kid, a neighborhood that’s forlorn. A classic American ghetto. The reasons for it are myriad and very complicated. Race, racism, economic decline, post-industrial stuff, all that kind of stuff. Anyway, that’s the kind of neighborhood it was.这时候,我乘火车从纽约前往华盛顿特区,可能你没有坐过那班火车——它是普通列车,每天都会发很多班。我是在纽约地区长大的,所以我坐那班火车可能有45年了,过段时间就往返一次。这45年来,每次进入巴尔的宾州车站,我都会看到巴尔的东侧那片社区。我记得,从我孩提时代开始,那就一直是个绝望孤独的社区。那是个典型的美国贫民窟,形成的原因有很多,非常复杂。族裔、种族主义、经济衰退、后工业化问题,如此种种。无论如何,那个社区就是那样的。I was looking at this neighborhood, and not thinking at all of writing about it, and I just got angry and frustrated as a citizen. I said, I can’t believe I’ve been seeing this neighborhood for probably four decades in various states of neglect, disrepair, maybe hope, a little bit. The current iteration that I saw was that it was all boarded up, these very modest 2oth-century modest row houses. They’d be just boarded up with plywood so that the street was completely cleared of anything, so that no one was supposed to live there anymore. It was absolutely cleared out of people. It was like a neutron bomb went off. The buildings were still standing, but the people were all gone.我看着这个社区,完全没有要写它的念头,我只是从公民的角度感到很生气,很失望。我说,我简直不敢相信,在大约40年的时间里,我看着这片社区总体上就处在无人理睬、破败失修,也许还有一丝丝希望的状态。当时我看到的最新状况是,所有房子都用木板封起来了,它们是20世纪那种不起眼的排式房屋。它们被胶合板封起来,这样街上就彻底没有了任何东西,所以应该是没人住在那里了。绝对空无一人。就好像一颗中子弹爆炸过,建筑物仍然矗立,但人都不在了。And I thought to myself — what a waste! We need so much affordable housing in our cities, and in Baltimore especially. I thought, why don’t we just invite an environmentally ruined village in China over? People can’t live there. Fifty thousand people — bring them over here, let them have it. Right? Let’s see what they do with it! They’ve got to do something good with it. Who knows what they’ll do?我心想——这太浪费了!我们的城市需要大量廉价住房,尤其是巴尔的。我想,何不去中国找一个环境被毁坏殆尽的乡村,请那里的人到这里来住呢?在那里是没法生活的。5万人——请他们过来,给他们住。看看他们会怎么对待这些!他们肯定会带来一些好的东西。谁知道他们能做出什么事来?And I kept sort of tossing that idea about, and I said, gee, that would be kind of a fun idea. Kind of an immigration story en masse. You know, usually an immigration story is like, my family, this community. But to bring everyone over at once in an engineered way, with a real purpose, a mission to revitalize. And I said of course that’s not going to work. No one’s going to allow that, even if people needed it.这个想法我一直在琢磨着,我心想,嘿,这倒是个挺好玩的点子。有点移民众生相的意思。你知道一个移民故事通常就是讲我的家庭之类,这个社区的事。但这是奔着一个切实的目标,一种复兴的使命,有计划地把所有人一次性搬迁过来。我心想那当然是不可能实现的。就算人真的有这个需求,也不可能得到许可。But then I just kept rolling about the idea, and I thought, well maybe in the future, in a very different future, America might need a certain kind of assistance, a certain kind of revitalization. Maybe all these forlorn urban areas — in 100 years, 200 years, that’s still a problem, still something that needs to be addressed, and maybe that would happen. So I said, O.K., I’ll set the book in the future. But of course once you do that, you have to talk about the rest of the future, the rest of the context. So that’s how this book happened.但想法在我脑子里还是一直转着,我想,也许在未来,一个跟现在很不一样的未来里,美国会需要某种特定的协助,某种振兴。这些荒凉的城区——未来100、200年里,也许仍然是个问题,仍然需要去面对,那么到时也许就能实现这个想法。于是我就说,好吧,我把这本书设定在未来。但当然,一旦你要这么做,未来的其余部分,语境的其余部分,你也得说说。这本书就是这么来的。I still took a lot of the research that I did on my Shenzhen trip. Not the details of that visit, but I guess the feeling, the ethos of those workers, the sense of community that they had. And really, this novel started out as a novel about community, but a certain kind of community. But then it became larger.在深圳的那次调研至今还是能带给我很多东西。我想重要的不是那段经历的细节,而是感受,那些工人的气质,那种拥有一个社区的感觉。实际上,这部小说在一开始就是一部讲社区的小说,只不过是某种特定的社区。然后才开始扩展开来。[During the question-and-answer session, a young man asked Mr. Lee about his understanding of Chinese culture, citing a scene in “On Such a Full Sea.” There is a plot spoiler here for those who have not yet the novel.][在问答环节,一个年轻人援引了《在如此完满的大海上》中的一个片段,请李昌来谈谈对中国文化的理解。这里有对书中情节的透露,望尚未阅读这部小说的读者知悉。]Q. When I was ing the book, there was a point for me when the story really turned and I became invested. And that was when the Joseph character, the boy, drowns and then there’s the funeral scene, because that just rang so true for me in my experience of Chinese funerals. It got me really curious how much of, is it a question of how much you really know about Chinese culture or is it like overlap with your understanding of Korean culture? What is it about Chinese culture that stands out from Korean culture or American culture, that’s distinctive for you? What is something inherent besides the obvious differences? 问:在看这本书的时候,对我来说有一个转折点,让我开始投入进去了。就是那个叫约瑟夫的男孩溺死后的葬礼,因为它显得很真实,唤起了我自己参加中式葬礼的经历。这让我很想知道,你对中国文化实际上有多少了解,或者说这种文化是不是跟你对韩国文化的理解有重合?对你来说,中国文化跟韩国文化或美国文化相比,有什么格外不一样的地方?除了那些明显的差异以外,它们有什么内在的不同点?A. I don’t know that there is. There is a little bit that it just bleeds over from Korean funerals, I suppose. I’d seen Chinese ones on film. [laughs] I think my editor was like, oh, you’re really going into all this business about … Why are you going into this scene? I had a hard time explaining it to her. Because I felt like that scene — and I’m really glad you brought it up — that scene, it was important to me because it’s when the community comes together and really taps into a feeling. It’s the first time that Fan really notices that and feels like there’s been a real bonding, even with all these disparate people that don’t really care about each other. That this one moment is sort of crystallizing a feeling.答:我不知道。我认为,有些地方和韩式葬礼类似。我通过电影看过中式葬礼。[笑] 我觉得我编辑的反应是这样的,哦,你真的要深入到所有这些东西里去……你为什么要写这一幕?我艰难地就此对她作了解释。因为我感觉那一幕——我真的很高兴你提了出来——那一幕,它之所以对我很重要,是因为整个社区在此刻团结在了一起,而且它真实地挖掘了一种感受。这是范第一次真正注意到这一点,而且感觉人们之间存在一种真实的联系,即使是与这些各不相同并且对彼此漠不关心的人。这一刻在某种程度上使一种感觉变得清清楚楚。And part of my anxiety about this community that I was writing about was that they’d gotten a little bit soft, a little bit comfortable, a little bit in some ways detached from one another, because the bonds of their community were so structurally sound and structurally kind of prescribed, that they’d forgotten about them. When everyone’s a cousin, everyone’s a cousin. No one’s like, right there. And so that was something that I felt that she would see or feel. And not just her — the “we.” They begin to feel something, that there’s this final burst, for the first time in a long time, this rush, this drug of feeling. And I guess that’s why that scene exists.对于我所书写的这个社区,我的一部分焦虑原因就是人们会变得有些软弱、有些舒适,在某些方面有些彼此疏远了,因为他们社区的联系在结构上如此牢固,而且结构上早就固定下来,所以他们会忘掉这些。如果所有人都是亲戚,也就没什么感觉了。好像没人在那里。所以,那就是我觉得她会看到或感受到的东西。而且不仅是她——是“我们”。他们开始感受到了一些东西,于是后来出现这个最后时刻的迸发,这是长期以来第一次,这种强烈的感觉,这种炽烈的感情。我认为这就是那一幕存在的原因。 /201503/366242U MINH, Vietnam — Luc Van Ho slips through a tangled thicket of jungle, graceful as a dancer. A blanket of dried bamboo and melaleuca leaves on the forest floor barely crackles beneath his bare feet. Only the smell of cigarette smoke betrays his presence.越南幽明县——陆云虎(Luc Van Ho)穿过一从纠缠交错的丛林植被,动作如舞者一样轻盈。林地上厚厚地铺着一层干枯的竹叶和千层树叶,在他的光脚下几乎没有发出声响。只有烟味暴露着他的踪迹。A hunter, Mr. Luc, 45, set out at dawn from his family’s bamboo-thatched home in Vietnam’s U Minh forest to check a half dozen homemade traps rigged along animal trails in the underbrush and on canal banks frequented by snakes and turtles.现年45岁的陆云虎是一名狩猎者,住在越南乌明森林的一栋竹屋里。他一大早就从家中出发,去查看自己布下的六个陷阱。这些陷阱分布在有动物经过的下层灌木底下,以及经常有蛇和乌龟出没的运河河岸。He stops at a snare trap made of wood and bicycle brake wire, nearly invisible beneath leaves. The trap is empty, not unusual.他走到了一个用木头和自行车闸线做成的陷阱,埋在叶子下面的装置几乎没人能发现。陷阱里空空如也,这种情况并不少见。“Before, this forest was very different,” Mr. Luc said. “Now, the animals are so few that most hunters are changing their jobs.”“这片森林以前可不是这样,”陆云虎说。“现在动物太少了,多数猎人都改了行。”Still, in the previous two weeks, Mr. Luc had caught nine Southeast Asian box turtles and Malayan snail-eating turtles, five elephant trunk snakes, a handful of water birds and two rare Himalayan griffon vultures. For safekeeping, Mr. Luc stashed the vultures in his brother’s house, leaving them tethered in the bedroom until he can figure out what to do with them.尽管如此,在过去的两个星期,陆云虎还是捕获了九只马来闭壳龟和马来食螺龟、五条象鼻蛇、少量水鸟,以及两只稀有的高山兀鹫。为了妥善保管这两只兀鹫,陆云虎把它们存放在了兄弟的房子里。在想出处理它们的办法之前,暂时把它们拴在了卧室里。In the past, Mr. Luc’s hunting trips often yielded wildlife bonanzas, including prized pangolins. Also known as scaly anteaters, they are among the most trafficked mammals in the world. Mr. Luc works with traders willing to buy live pangolins for a pound.过去,陆云虎的狩猎之行常常会有大量斩获,包括名贵的穿山甲。这是全世界走私最严重的哺乳动物之一。与陆云虎合作的商人愿意以每磅60美元(约合370元人民币)的价格收购活穿山甲。Although he caught just two pangolins last year, that price makes it well worth the effort to keep seeking them out. He knows, however, that this lucrative resource is finite.虽说陆云虎过去一年中只捕获过两只穿山甲,这个价格让他觉得,继续寻找穿山甲是值得的。然而他知道,这个丰厚的收入来源不会永远存在。“Pangolins will be extinct soon,” he said. Still, he expresses no plans to retire.“穿山甲很快就会灭绝了,”他说。不过,他并没有打算金盆洗手。Mr. Luc is one of thousands of illegal hunters draining Vietnam, one of the most biodiverse countries in the world, of its animals. Its rhinoceroses have aly gone extinct, and conservationists estimate that just a couple of its tigers, if any, remain. Even lesser known species like soft-shell turtles and civets are sought out for traditional medicines, food, trophies and pets.像陆云虎这样的成千上万的非法捕猎者,正在让越南的动物资源走向枯竭。越南是世界上最具生物多样性的国家之一。越南的犀牛已经灭绝。动物保护人士估计,这里的老虎即使没灭绝,可能也不多了。一些人们不太熟悉的物种,比如中华鳖和灵猫,也是捕猎的对象,它们被用来制作传统药材和食物,或是当做纪念品和宠物。Illegal wildlife is one of the world’s largest contraband trades, netting an estimated billion a year, not including illegal fisheries and timber. While all Southeast Asian countries and many others outside of the region are involved, Vietnam plays a paramount role. The country is a major thoroughfare for wildlife goods bound for China, which arrive overland from Cambodia, Thailand and Laos; by ship from Malaysia and Indonesia; or by air from Africa.非法野生动物贸易是世界上规模最大的违禁贸易之一,每年的规模约为190亿美元,这还不包括非法的渔业和木材贸易。尽管东南亚国家和该地区以外的许多国家都卷入了这场贸易,越南扮演着独一无二的重要角色。该国是野生动物商品进入中国的主要渠道,这些商品从柬埔寨、泰国和老挝经陆路、从马来西亚和印度尼西亚经水路,从非洲经空运抵达越南,然后流入中国。“After China, Vietnam is the next port of call in terms of where to look to figure out what’s going on with wildlife trade,” said Dan Challender, a co-chairman of the pangolin specialist group at the International Union for Conservation of Nature.“要弄清楚野生动物贸易的状况,除了中国之外,越南是第二个值得关注的地方,”国际自然保护联盟(International Union for Conservation of Nature)穿山甲保护专项小组的联席主席丹·查兰德(Dan Challender)说。Vietnam is also a significant consumer of wildlife, especially those yielding the ingredients for traditional medicine, such as rhino horn, which is used to treat everything from cancer to hangovers. The exotic meats of rare animals are seen as luxuries by a rising middle class eager to advertise its prosperity.越南也是野生动物产品重要的消费国,特别是那些能够用来制造传统药材的动物产品,比如犀牛角。犀牛角被用来治疗从癌症到宿醉的各种疾病。此外,日益庞大的中产阶级也把稀有动物的肉看做能够彰显自身财富的奢侈商品。“Pangolin is frequently the most expensive item on the , so ordering it is an obvious way to show off to friends and colleagues,” Dr. Challender said. “The fact that it’s illegal isn’t played down and is even attractive, because it adds this element that you live beyond the law.”“穿山甲常常是菜单上最贵的菜,因此点一道穿山甲显然是对朋友同事进行炫耀的一种方式,”查兰德说。“他们不掩饰食用穿山甲属非法行为的事实,反而觉得更有吸引力,因为它为这种行为增加了刺激元素,仿佛你可以逍遥法外。”International concern about the trade have never been greater, but conferences, new enforcement strategies and ivory crushes have yet to make a dent.国际上对这种贸易的担忧已经达到了前所未有的程度,不过,相关的会议、新的执法策略以及销毁象牙制品的行动还没有产生什么效果。In February, the Obama administration issued a plan to curb illegal wildlife trade by strengthening enforcement, reducing demand and sending a handful of agents abroad. The ed States is the second-largest market for illegal wildlife products, but only an estimated 10 percent of traffickers are caught because of inadequate resources supporting enforcement, as well as legal loopholes pertaining to certain products, such as ivory.今年2月,奥巴马政府推出了一项通过加强执法、减少需求和派遣少数工作人员到海外的方法来遏制野生动物贸易的方案。美国是非法野生动物商品的第二大市场,但由于用于执法的资源不足,而且涉及特定产品,比如象牙,又存在法律漏洞,只有10%的走私者落网。“Wildlife trade is higher profile now than it’s ever been, and that’s great,” said Chris Shepherd, regional director in Southeast Asia of Traffic, a wildlife trade monitoring network. “But all of the talk about this issue by world leaders is not trickling down to the ground yet.”“野生动物贸易获得了前所未有的关注,”监测野生动物贸易的组织Traffic的东南亚地区主任克里斯·谢泼德(Chris Shepherd)说。“但所有关于该问题的讨论并没有落到实处。”In January of this year, officials intercepted more than 7,500 protected pig-nosed turtles in Indonesia, a frozen tiger in Vietnam and 190 endangered black pond turtles in Singapore. As wildlife disappears in Southeast Asia, poachers increasingly turn to Africa.今年1月,有关部门在印度尼西亚截获了超过7500头猪鼻龟,在越南截获了一头被冷藏的老虎,在新加坡则是190只濒危的黑池龟。随着东南亚野生动物的不断消失,越来越多的偷猎者把目光转向了非洲。More than 1,500 pounds of ivory and two tons of pangolin skins were intercepted in Uganda in January. Last year in South Africa alone, a record 1,215 rhinos were killed for their horns.今年1月,乌干达截获了超过1500吨象牙和两吨穿山甲皮。去年,只在南非,偷猎者为了获得犀牛角猎杀了1215头犀牛,这个数字创下了历年之最。The illegal wildlife products that officials manage to interdict account for an estimated 10 to 20 percent of the total trafficked.官员们截获的非法野生动物产品相当于全部走私规模的10%到20%。“We may be disrupting criminal networks, but we’re certainly not dismantling any of them,” said Scott Roberton, Vietnam country representative and regional coordinator for wildlife trafficking programs for the Wildlife Conservation Society. “The situation is going to get worse before it gets better.”“我们或许干扰了犯罪集团,但我们毫无疑问没有消灭其中的任何一个,”国际野生生物保护学会(Wildlife Conservation Society)越南国家代表和野生动物走私项目地区协调员斯科特·罗伯森(Scott Roberton)说。“在情况有所改善之前,还会进一步恶化。”While China recently increased its arrests and prosecutions for wildlife crimes, those caught trafficking wildlife in Vietnam or other transit countries almost always escape punishment. Dealing in protected species is a criminal offense under Vietnamese law, as is selling wild-caught animals of any kind.虽然中国近期在野生动物犯罪方面加强了拘捕与诉讼工作,但那些在越南等中转国抓获的野生动物走私者几乎总能逃脱惩罚。按照越南法律的规定,交易保护物种或销售任何种类的野外捕获的动物均属犯罪行为。But even when trafficking kingpins are taken into custody, prosecution often depends on finding unrelated charges that are taken more seriously than wildlife crime, such as car smuggling. Poachers like Mr. Luc — who says he has never run into legal trouble — are rarely reprimanded, and punishment, if any, usually entails a small fine.不过,就算走私活动主犯遭到扣押,要想进行诉讼也往往有赖于找到比野生动物犯罪更严重的不相干罪名,比如走私汽车。陆云虎表示,自己从未遭遇法律问题。像他这样的偷猎者很少受到责难,即使面临惩处,也常常是一小笔罚款了事。“Very few criminals caught for major violations like tiger or rhino horn possession ever do a day in prison,” said Douglas Hendrie, chief technical adviser for Education for Nature-Vietnam, a nonprofit organization based in Vietnam.“因为持有虎制品或犀牛角这种重大违法行为而被抓获的犯罪分子中,几乎没有人在监狱里待过哪怕一天,”越南保护自然教育组织(Education for Nature-Vietnam)的首席技术顾问道格拉斯·亨德里(Douglas Hendrie)说。这是一家设在越南当地的非营利机构。Wild-caught and protected animal products are easily procured in Vietnamese cities. “It’s not an enforcement priority yet, largely due to corruption, collusion and an absolute lack of concern,” Dr. Shepherd said. “People just do not care.”在越南的各大城市,很容易弄到野外捕获及受保护动物的制品。“这还不是执法的重点,而其中的主要原因是腐败、串谋,以及漠不关心,”谢泼德说。“大家完全不在乎。”Thien Vuong Tuu (“The Alcohol of the Gods”), a fancy restaurant in Ho Chi Minh City, advertises pangolin, bear, porcupine, bat and more on its illustrated . Customers interested in pangolin — sold for 0 a pound — must order it two to three hours in advance and place a deposit based on its weight.胡志明市的一家高档餐厅“天王酒家”(Thien Vuong Tuu)在配了图片的菜单上宣传自己供应穿山甲、熊、豪猪和蝙蝠等菜品。穿山甲的售价为每磅150美元(约合每公斤2000元人民币)。有意品尝的顾客必须提前两三小时预订,并按照份量交一笔预付款。When the customer returns for dinner, the manager presents the live pangolin to the table, then slices its throat on the spot to prove that the meat is fresh and has not been substituted.当客人回来吃晚餐的时候,经理会把活的穿山甲拿到餐桌前来展示,然后当场割喉,明肉质新鲜,没有被掉包。“Pangolin is very popular with customers, because it treats a lot of sicknesses,” said Quoc Trung, the restaurant manager. His staff will also dry and package pangolin scales left over from dinner — a popular ingredient in traditional medicines that are still covered by Vietnamese health insurance.“穿山甲在顾客当中非常受欢迎,因为它能治很多病,”餐厅经理国征说。他手下的员工还会将餐桌上剩下的穿山甲鳞片晾干后包装起来——这是一种流行的传统药物成分,至今仍为越南医疗保险所接纳。On a Sunday night, families with young children and groups of middle-aged men fill the restaurant. At one table, two French-speaking men order a cobra to the delight of their female companions. Two young servers bring out a large, writhing snake, its mouth bound tightly shut with plastic twine.一个周日的晚上,这家餐厅里满是带着小孩的家庭顾客和一群群的中年男性。在一张桌子上,两名说法语的男士点了条眼镜蛇,讨得了他们女伴的欢心。两个年轻的务员端出一条身躯扭动的大蛇,它的嘴部被塑料绳牢牢绑住。As the customers film with their smartphones, one server holds the snake taut. The other carefully feels along the animal’s abdomen until he locates the heart, then opens it up with a pair of scissors and removes the beating organ with his bare fingers.客人用智能手机拍摄的同时,一名务员紧紧抓住蛇身,另一人则在它的腹部摸索,确定了心脏的位置之后,再用一把剪刀剖开,徒手取出这颗还在跳动的脏器。As the servers wring out the animal, the blood drips into a ceramic bowl to be mixed later with alcohol and drunk.务员沥出蛇血,滴到一个瓷碗中,准备拿去兑酒供客人饮用。“The government doesn’t allow exotic meat, but we have our sources and good connections with the police,” Mr. Quoc said after the show concluded. “The demand is so high for these things, so we have to supply them.”“政府不许用稀有肉类,不过我们有货源,跟警察关系好,”这番表演结束后,国征说。“这些东西需求特别大,我们一定要供应。”Given the widesp lack of enforcement, grass-roots conservation organizations in Vietnam increasingly find themselves on the front lines. Education for Nature-Vietnam recently conducted a survey of restaurants, hotels and shops in 12 districts in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, recording each violation of wildlife laws and insisting that authorities follow up.由于执法的普遍缺失,越南的草根保护组织越来越多地感到自己身处第一线。越南保护自然教育组织近期对河内和胡志明市12个区的餐厅、酒店和商铺进行了调查,记录下违反野生动物法规的每项行为,并且坚决要求相关机构予以跟进。Several months later, the group repeated the survey and found the availability of illegal products ranging from snake “wine” to bear bile had fallen by nearly 60 percent in eight of the districts. “When authorities put us out of work by doing their job effectively and consistently, then we’ll no longer have to do this,” Mr. Hendrie said.几个月后,该组织再次进行了调查,发现在其中八个区弄到蛇酒和熊胆等非法制品的可能性降低了近60%。“当局持续有效地做好本职工作,让我们没事可干的时候,我们才会不用做这些,”亨德里说。Save Vietnam’s Wildlife, a nonprofit based at Cuc Phuong National Park, organizes training sessions across the country for park rangers and the police, conducts community education programs and operates one of the country’s only rehabilitation centers for confiscated animals.设在菊芳国家公园(Cuc Phuong National Park)内的非营利机构“拯救越南野生动物组织”(Save Vietnam’s Wildlife)在该国各地组织面向护林员和警察的培训活动、运营社区教育项目,并且开设了一家越南少有的罚没动物康复中心。In Vietnam, much of the wildlife intercepted from illegal traders is sold by officials back into the black market. Nguyen Van Thain, Save Vietnam’s Wildlife’s founder, often must race to the sites of recent confiscations to try to recover animals before that can happen.在越南,从非法交易者手中截获的许多野生动物都会被官员卖回黑市。拯救越南野生动物组织的创始人阮文泰(Nguyen Van Thain)常常需要赶去最新的罚没现场,才可能及时救回动物。“Corrupt rangers still want to sell animals back to the trade,” Mr. Nguyen said. Even if the animals are not sold, very few return to the wild, because of a lack of rehabilitation facilities.“腐败的林业工作者还是想要把动物弄回去卖掉,”阮文泰说。因为康复中心的匮乏,就算动物免于被贩卖的命运,也没有多少能重返大自然。Animals not sent to a specialized rescue center often “just sit around until they die,” Dr. Shepherd said.未能送到专业救治中心的动物往往“坐以待毙,”谢泼德说。Over the last three months, Mr. Nguyen has helped rescue 20 pangolins, but the maximum capacity at his center — one of only two in Vietnam that can care for pangolins — is less than 50. With a budget of just ,000 a year, he has few resources with which to expand the center and hire additional staff.过去三个月里,阮文泰帮助救治了20只穿山甲。不过他创办的中心最大的容量不到50只,而越南只有两处这样的地方可以照看穿山甲。这家中心的年预算仅为9万美元,他也没什么资源来扩大中心规模或增添人手。Mr. Nguyen says he is not confident that attitudes will change in time to spare his country’s wildlife.阮文泰表示,自己并不看好越南人能及时转变观念,让野生动物免于灾祸。“The problem in Vietnam is that conservation is a new way of thinking,” he said. “Vietnamese people need to learn to take seriously what we have now. We need to take care of our own environment and wildlife if we want it to be around in the future.”“越南的问题是,保护自然还是个新的概念,”他说。“越南人必须学会珍惜我们现在拥有的东西。如果我们想要它们将来还存在的话,我们必须保护好自己的环境和野生动物。” /201504/368030

  When hundreds of Californians invaded the state capitol last week to demand the right not to vaccinate their kids, they were playing out a very modern conflict: science versus belief systems. Scientists tell parents that vaccinations are safe. But many parents prefer to trust their gut instinct that they’re not safe. This dialogue of the deaf is becoming the norm. Increasingly, people make their own decisions on health and diet, instead of outsourcing them to scientists, doctors or governments.不久前,数百名美国加州人闯入州议会大厦,要求拥有不让自己的孩子接种疫苗的权利,他们演绎了一场极为现代的冲突——科学vs观念体系。科学家告诉家长接种疫苗是安全的,但许多家长宁愿相信自己的直觉——接种疫苗不安全。这种鸡同鸭讲式的对话已成常态。人们在健康和饮食方面越来越自作主张,而不是相信科学家、医生或政府。If you want to change people’s behaviour, don’t recite science at them, says Alan Dangour, nutritionist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine (LSHTM). Rather, to nudge people to better decisions, we need to understand how they decide. Behavioural economics has identified cognitive biases that influence our decisions about money. Here are some biases and misjudgments that shape decisions on health and diet:伦敦卫生暨热带医学院(London School of Hygiene amp; Tropical Medicine)营养学家阿伦#8226;丹古尔(Alan Dangour)表示,如果你想改变人们的行为,不要跟他们大讲科学道理。相反,想劝人们作出更好的决定,我们需要去了解他们是怎么做决定的。行为经济学已发现多种影响人类消费决定的认知偏见。以下是一些影响人们决定健康和饮食方式的偏见和错误观念:“‘Natural’ is good.”“‘天然的’就是好的”When faced with complex problems, people often resort to a heuristic: a pragmatic, simplified mental shortcut. A common shortcut is to use labels such as “natural”, “organic”, “local” or “homeopathic” as proxies for healthy. Conversely, “artificial” gets equated with unhealthy. This heuristic appeals partly because it relies on words. Not everyone understands science but we all know language.当面对复杂问题时,人们往往会采用启发法(heuristic),这是一种务实、简单化的心理捷径(mental shortcut)。常见的捷径之一是使用“天然”、“有机”、“本地”或“顺势疗法”等标签代表健康。反之,“人造的”就等同于不健康的。这种启发法之所以具有吸引力,部分在于它依靠文字。不是人人都懂科学,但所有人都懂语言。Sometimes, natural actually is good. The World Health Organisation announced last month that the world’s most common weedkiller, glyphosate, can probably cause cancer. But often natural isn’t good. For instance, homeopathy is ineffective for treating any medical condition, concluded Australia’s National Health and Medical Research Council last month, echoing a report for Britain’s House of Commons in 2010.有时天然的确是好的。世界卫生组织(WHO)在今年3月宣布,全球最常见的除草剂草甘膦可能会致癌。但多数情况下,天然的并不好。比如,澳大利亚国家健康与医学研究理事会(National Health and Medical Research Council)也在今年3月发表了一个结论,顺势疗法对治疗任何疾病都毫无疗效,附和了2010年提交到英国下议院的一份报告的结论。Likewise, “natural” organic foods aren’t more nutritious than other foods, said researchers from the LSHTM, after reviewing 50 years of studies. A Stanford analysis of 237 studies concurred.此外,伦敦卫生暨热带医学院的研究人员回顾了50年来的研究成果之后,表示“天然”有机食品并不比其他食物更有营养。斯坦福大学(Stanford)从237项研究中也得出了同样结论。“All ‘scientific’ studies are equal.”“所有‘科学的’研究都是平等的”In fact, as Eula Biss explains in her book On Immunity, any single study in medicine is meaningless. To e medical researcher John Ioannidis: “Most published research findings are false.” A single study might have been small, poorly conducted or produce findings that are due simply to chance. “What matters,” says Ioannidis, “is the totality of evidence.” That’s why the gold standard of medical research is the meta-study, such as the ones cited above on organic food, which aggregate previous research on a topic. Nonetheless anti-vaccinators still cite one now-retracted study of 12 children, published by Andrew Wakefield and others in 1998, which suggested that vaccinating children might cause autism.事实上,正如尤拉#8226;比斯(Eula Biss)在其著作《免疫》(On Immunity)中所述,医学上的任何单一研究都毫无意义。引用医学研究人员约翰#8226;约安尼季斯(John Ioannidis)的一句话:“大多数业已发表的研究成果都是虚假的。”单一研究有可能规模很小,操作不当,或者仅仅是偶然状况下得出的结果。约安尼季斯说:“重要的是所有据的总和。”这就是为什么医学研究的黄金标准是元研究,它集合了关于某一课题的以往研究,比如前文中提到的关于有机食品的研究。尽管如此,反疫苗者仍引用一份已经撤销的关于12名儿童案例的研究报告,该研究由安德鲁#8226;韦克菲尔德(Andrew Wakefield)与其他研究人员在1998年发布,他们认为儿童接种疫苗可能引起自闭症。People seize on single studies because we are bad at weighing quantities. We struggle to distinguish between “a little” and “lots”. That’s also why people panic when “traces” of “toxins” show up in a product — traces of mercury in vaccines, for instance. But quantity is crucial. Biss es a toxicologists’ adage: “The dose makes the poison.”人们之所以会抓住一项研究不撒手,是因为我们非常不善于权衡数量。我们很难区分出“少量”与“大量”之间的差别。这也是为什么当某一产品显现出“有毒迹象”时人们会恐慌,比如当疫苗中含有汞成分时。但分量才是关键因素。比斯引用了一句毒理学格言:“只要剂量足,万物皆有毒。”(The dose makes the poison)“Self-denial is good for you.”“弃绝自我是有益的”This religious notion survives in today’s “detox diets”, which often entail forswearing everything except selected “natural” products such as juices. In fact, “sinful” things such as wine, chocolate and coffee (a rare legal, mind-altering, performance-enhancing drug) are healthy in small quantities.这种宗教观念在如今的“节食排毒”(detox diets)饮食理念中得到延续。该饮食方式通常需要戒绝一切食物,只食用果汁之类的选定的“天然”产品。事实上,少量食用“罪恶的”食物对健康有利,比如葡萄酒、巧克力和咖啡(咖啡是一种少有的合法、会改变精神、提高效率的药品)。Confirmation bias确认偏见Our main source of information on health today is Google. However, you can find anything online, and most people gravitate to websites that confirm their beliefs.我们今天关于健康的信息主要来自谷歌(Google)。但是网上可以找到各种各样的说法,而且绝大多数人倾向于那些能明他们观念的网站。Ambiguity aversion模糊厌恶People like certainty. In health, that’s rarely available. Authorities sometimes change their minds: for instance, the US government is expected to announce soon that high-cholesterol foods are OK after all.人们喜欢确定性,但在健康方面确定性很难得到。相关部门不时会改变观点,比如美国政府预计很快将宣布,高胆固醇食物是没有问题的。Instead of seeking certainty, we should make decisions on the balance of probability: vaccinating your kids is very probably smart. But probability feels too ambiguous to be reassuring.在健康问题上,我们不该去追求确定性,而是应该基于概然性来做出决定:给你的孩子接种疫苗非常可能是个明智的决定。但可能性听起来太模棱两可,无法让人放心。Rare, spectacular kinds of death grip our imaginations.我们的想象里充斥着各种稀奇的、耸人听闻的死法People fret about terrorists, sharks, Ebola and plane crashes because of the availability heuristic. The more available a piece of information is to the memory — a terrorist attack, say — the more likely it is to influence our decisions. In fact, terrorism kills fewer people than sitting at a desk.人们担心恐怖分子、鲨鱼、埃拉(Ebola)和飞机失事是因为它们具有“可得性启发”(availability heuristic)。一条信息——比如恐怖袭击——对记忆的启发越多,对我们做决定的影响很可能就越大。事实上,死于恐怖主义的人远远少于死在办公桌前的人。Optimism bias乐观倾向Smokers know that smoking is addictive and lethal. But they tend to believe it will only enslave and kill other smokers, says Jody Sindelar, professor at the Yale School of Public Health. In general, people downplay their unhealthy habits, preferring instead to blame disease on factors beyond their control: their genes or environmental factors such as mobile phones or radiation. You can see why.耶鲁大学(Yale)公共卫生学院(School of Public Health)的乔迪#8226;辛德拉尔教授(Jody Sindelar)表示,吸烟者知道吸烟会上瘾,还会致命,可他们往往相信香烟只会征和杀死其他吸烟者。一般来说,人们会低估自己的不良习惯的影响,而偏向将病因归结于那些他们无法控制的因素,比如基因或手机、辐射等环境因素。个中原因可想而知。Present bias重视眼前的倾向We value the present above the future. The best time to quit smoking is therefore always tomorrow, says Sindelar.辛德拉尔说,比起未来,我们更看重眼前,所以戒烟的最佳时机永远是明天。Scientists and governments need to change tack. Instead of bombarding people with science, they should design policies that use our cognitive biases. One obvious technique is advertising. A gorgeous ad showing a mother cuddling a baby who is being vaccinated might be worth 10,000 scientific studies. Sindelar suggests other methods:科学家和政府需要改变策略。不应该用科学道理去轰炸民众,而是应该根据我们的认知偏差来设计政策。最易行的手法就是广告。比如拍摄一位母亲怀里抱着正在接种的小宝宝,这样一动人的广告或许比得上一万个科学研究。辛德拉尔还提出了其他方法: Reminders: on sunny days, send people messages suggesting they put on sunscreen.提醒:在阳光明媚的日子,给人们发消息建议他们涂上防晒霜。 Pre-commitments: encourage people to bet that they will lose specific amounts of weight.预承诺:鼓励人们打赌他们能够减掉多少体重。 Financial incentives: pay people to give up smoking.财务奖励:以奖金鼓励人们戒烟。These nudges could do more than scientific findings to change behaviour. In today’s low-trust world, science is in the doghouse with most other authorities.这些温和的规劝比科学发现更能改变人类行为。在如今这个低信任度的世界,科学与其他多数权威都已被打入冷宫。 /201505/374469

  Fresh off an official report that confirmed long-held fears over the state of China#39;s soil, new government figures show the majority of the country#39;s water remains polluted despite billions of dollars spent trying to clean it up. Reuters官方报告刚刚实长期以来人们担心的中国土壤污染状况,新出炉的官方数据又显示中国大部分地下水监测点水质差,尽管中国政府已花费数十亿美元试图治理水污染。Nearly three-fifths, or 59.6%, of China#39;s water was found to be either moderately or seriously polluted in 2013, the Ministry of Land and Resources said in its annual report on Tuesday ( pdf). 中国国土资源部在周二发布的年度报告中称,2013年中国水质较差和极差的监测点占总数的比例将近五分之三,达到59.6%。That#39;s a slight increase from 2012, when the figure was 57.4%. A little more than a tenth of the country#39;s water was #39;high quality#39; last year, according to the report, which didn#39;t specify how quality levels were determined. 这比2012年的比例57.4%有小幅上升。报告称,中国水质优良的监测点占总数的比例略高于10%。该报告没有说明水质等级是如何确定的。The ministry#39;s report is the latest evidence to underline the scale on environmental damage wrought by decades of hell-for-leather economic growth and the enormity of the challenge authorities face in cleaning it up. 国土资源部的这份报告是说明中国环境已受到严重污染、政府治污面临严峻挑战的最新据。中国几十年来的经济飞速增长导致国内环境受到巨大破坏。Last week, the Ministry of Land and Resources and the Ministry of Environmental Protection jointly released the results of a national soil survey that found close to a fifth of the country#39;s arable land is polluted, with around 3% suffering either moderate or serious pollution. The vast majority of that pollution came from inorganic sources such as heavy metals, most of which are byproducts of industry and mining. 上周,国土资源部和环境保护部联合发布了《全国土壤污染状况调查公报》,调查显示国内接近五分之一的可耕种土地已经受到污染,其中大约3%受到中等程度或严重污染。污染绝大部分来自重金属等无机污染物,这些重金属污染物是工业和矿业的副产品。While the data on soil pollution -- previously considered a state secret -- is new, authorities have been more open on the subject of water. Data from the resources ministry shows that 57% of the country#39;s water was either seriously or moderately polluted in 2010. In other words, while water pollution isn#39;t getting much worse, it isn#39;t getting better either. 这是土壤污染相关数据第一次在世人面前揭开面纱(之前都被当做国家机密),不过,当局对于水污染的现状则更为公开一些。国土资源部的数据显示,2010年,中国57%的水源已经达到重度或中度污染程度。换句话说,虽然水污染并没有大幅恶化,但也没变好。That#39;s despite massive government spending on water conservation in recent years. 政府近些年来确实也为水资源保护投入了很大力气,但是成效甚微。#39;Problems continue to occur in a lot of places. We can#39;t take this lightly,#39; said Liu Changming, a senior water researcher with the government-backed Chinese Academy of Sciences. 中国科学院高级水资源研究专家刘昌明说:许多地方仍然曝出水资源问题,对此我们不可轻视。China was reminded of just how serious it water pollution remains earlier this month, when residents of the city of Lanzhou were ordered to avoid drinking tap water following the discovery of levels of benzene some 20 times the national limit. The carcinogenic chemical was later found to have made its way into the city#39;s water supply as the result of a crude-oil leak. 本月早些时候,一场水质事件提醒中国勿忽视严重的水污染现状。兰州市市民被告知不要饮用自来水,因为自来水中所含的苯被发现超过国家标准线大约20倍。后来查明,这种致癌化学物质流入兰州市供水系统源于某原油管道的泄漏。The government was #39;alert to the problem and prepared to deal with it,#39; said Mr. Liu. #39;But it will take a long time to solve.#39; 刘昌明说,政府已经警惕到了水问题的严重性,准备着手予以解决。但他补充称,这要花上很长一段时间。 /201404/290981。

  

  Luxury jewellers face challenges on numerous fronts — but a battered gold price is not one of them, making the sector one of the few winners amid a global commodities rout.奢侈品珠宝商在很多领域面临挑战,但金价下跌并非这些挑战之一,反而让奢侈品行业成为全球大宗商品大跌中为数不多的赢家之一。The yellow metal had a long bull run at the beginning of the 21st century, steadily climbing from 1999 onwards and soaring after the financial crisis hit in 2008. However, the market had peaked by the end of 2011, and this summer began hitting multi-year lows, spurred by falling demand from China and India as well as by a strengthening dollar and the prospect of rising US interest rates.从21世纪初开始,黄金一直处于长期牛市。金价自1999年来稳步上涨,在2008年金融危机爆发之后大幅上涨。然而,金价在2011年底前见顶,在今年夏季开始屡创多年新低,背后因素在于中国和印度需求的减少,以及美元走强和美国加息预期。Although gold prices began climbing again in August as investors grappled with a global equity sell-off, the price is still about 40 per cent down from its historic peak of ,900.20 in May 2011.尽管由于投资者努力应对全球股票抛售,金价在今年8月再次攀升,但当前金价仍比2011年5月创下的1990.20美元的历史高点低了约40%。How far in advance top jewellers purchase gold supplies varies, but the average across the industry is approximately one year. This means that although the beneficial effect of a lower gold price for the manufacturing side will not be felt immediately, it will still flatter margins eventually.顶级珠宝商提前多久购买黄金不尽相同,但全行业平均提前时间约为1年。这意味着,尽管金价对生产商的好处不会立刻显现,但最终仍将提高利润率。Swiss luxury goods group Richemont, owner of jewellers including Cartier, Van Cleef amp; Arpels and Piaget, says the cost of craftsmanship in assembling its ,000 rings and ,000 necklaces far outweighs the cost of the raw materials each piece requires.卡地亚(Cartier)、梵克雅宝(Van Cleef amp; Arpels)和伯爵(Piaget)等珠宝品牌的持有人、瑞士奢侈品集团历峰(Richemont)表示,其1.7万美元戒指和1万美元项链的制作成本远远超过了每件商品所需原材料的成本。Thomas Chauvet, an analyst at Citi, agrees. “While Richemont and Swatch will continue to benefit from lower gold prices, let’s not overestimate this impact,” he says.花旗(Citi)分析师托马阠伟(Thomas Chauvet)表示,“尽管历峰和斯沃琪(Swatch)将继续受益于金价下跌,但我们不要过高估计这一影响。”Judged against where it was in 2008 and 2011, the gold price looks set to remain depressed for now, meaning jewellers should breathe a sigh of relief that commodities are not added to their list of headaches, which include currency gyrations, the push to reduce corruption and ostentatious gift-giving among Chinese officials — which has hit sales of fine watches — and a slowing Chinese economy. But there could yet be a worrying twist.跟2008年和2011年的行情相比,金价目前似乎会保持在低水平上,意味着珠宝商应该会松一口气了:大宗商品并未进入他们的“头疼清单”。令他们头疼的问题包括货币波动、中国致力于打击官员腐败和赠送豪华礼品的行动——这冲击了名贵手表的销售——以及中国经济增长放缓。但是,可能还存在一个令人困扰的问题。A big factor in the reduced gold price has been curtailed demand from China, a symptom of strain in the country’s economy. This is potentially making life for jewellers in that market increasingly difficult, even if the cost of producing goods is now slightly cheaper than it was five years ago.金价下跌背后的一个重要因素是中国需求减弱,这正是中国经济承压的一个征兆。这可能让中国市场上的珠宝商面临日益艰难的处境,即便如今的生产成本比5年前略低。Global gold demand dropped 12 per cent to 914.9 tonnes in the three months to June, a six-year low, according to the World Gold Council, an industry body. The fall was chiefly the result of weakness in the key markets of India and China. In the case of India, this was linked to seasonal factors, such as the small number of days considered lucky for a wedding, but for China the drop was caused by what is becoming a prolonged period of poor growth and stock market turmoil.行业机构世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)的数据显示,在截至6月的3个月内,世界黄金需求下降了12%,降至914.9吨的六年新低。这主要是关键市场印度和中国需求疲弱的结果。至于印度,这跟季节性因素相关,比如被认为适合结婚的日子很少;但对中国而言,这主要是长期的经济增长疲软以及股市动荡所致。 /201509/397483

  

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