淄博市 治疗阳痿早泄哪里好

明星资讯腾讯娱乐2018年02月22日 19:00:49
The US department of commerce is preparing to temporarily lift some sanctions on ZTE, the Chinese telecommunications equipment maker accused of illicitly supplying US technology to Iran. 美国商务部准备暂时解除对中国电信设备制造商中兴通讯(ZTE)的部分制裁,后者被指控非法向伊朗提供美国的技术。 The sanctions, announced on March 8, in effect ban US companies from supplying one of China’s highest-profile technology companies. After Huawei, ZTE is China’s second-largest global exporter of telecoms infrastructure, and the third-largest seller of Android smartphones in the US. 美国3月8日宣布的制裁措施,从实质上禁止美国企业向中兴供货。中兴是中国知名科技公司之一,是仅次于华为(Huawei)的中国第二大电信基础设施全球出口商,也是美国市场上的第三大Android智能手机销售商。 The ban was imposed after an investigation by the commerce department found earlier this month that ZTE “planned and organised a scheme to establish, control and use a series of ‘detached’ [or shell] companies to illicitly re-export controlled items to Iran in violation of US export control laws” according to a March 8 announcement. 3月8日的公告称,实施这一禁令是因为美国商务部展开的一项调查在本月早些时候发现,中兴“策划和组织了一套方案,建立、控制和使用一系列的‘分离’(即空壳)公司非法向伊朗转口受管制物品,违反美国的出口管制法律”。 But following weeks of discussions, the commerce department appears poised to relax the measures. 但在经历了为期数周的磋商后,美国商务部似乎打算放松制裁。 According to the text of a document seen by the Financial Times that could be posted to the Federal Register as early as Thursday, the ban could be waived until June 30 as a result of binding commitments made by ZTE. 英国《金融时报》看到的一份文件的文本显示,由于中兴作出了具有约束性的承诺,这项禁令可能直至6月30日都会被免于执行。这份文件可能最早将于本周四发布在《联邦公报》(Federal Register)上。 According to the document the US Commerce Department would “restore temporarily the status quo ante licensing policy pertaining to exports, re-exports, and transfers (in-country) to ZTE Corporation and ZTE Kangxun”. 根据这份文件,美国商务部将“暂时恢复原有的与向中兴通讯和中兴康讯(ZTE Kangxun)出口、转口和(国内)转交有关的许可政策”。 ZTE Kangxun, a subsidiary, according to the department of commerce, facilitated the supply of US technology to Iran by buying US technology and providing them to a Chinese intermediary trading company for re-export. 美国商务部称,通过买入美国技术并将它们提供给中国的一家中间贸易公司用于转口,中兴子公司中兴康讯帮助向伊朗供应了美国的技术。 Beijing 8-Star and ZTE Parsian, two other entities connected to ZTE that according to the department of commerce were implicated in the re-exporting of US technology to Iran, are not to be taken off the sanctions list, the document said. 这份文件显示,与中兴有关的另两家实体——北京八星(Beijing 8-Star)和中兴伊朗(ZTE Parsian)——并未被撤下制裁名单。根据美国商务部的说法,这两家实体也涉及把美国技术转口给伊朗。 ZTE’s Hong Kong and Shenzhen shares have been suspended since March 7. 中兴在香港和深圳上市的股票自3月7日起都已停牌。 /201603/433009

China’s working age population will fall by more than 10 per cent, a loss of 90m people, by 2040, as much of east Asia “gets old before it gets rich”, the World Bank said last week.世界(World Bank)上周表示,到2040年中国的适龄劳动人口将减少逾10%,相当于减少9000万劳动力,而东亚大部分地区都面临“未富先老”的风险。The findings conjure up a scenario of a shrinking workforce, sluggish economic growth, rising labour costs as workers become more scarce and increased government spending on pensions, sapping the vitality of one of the world’s key growth engines.世行的报告让人们脑海中浮现出一幅劳动力萎缩、经济增长乏力、劳动力成本不断攀升的画面,因为劳动力变得越来越稀缺而且政府不得不增加养老金出,这将削弱中国作为全球主要增长引擎的活力。This scenario is widely accepted by economic and financial commentators. It is supposedly one of the great truisms of our time.此种前景已经被经济、财经员广泛接受,并被视为我们时代的一条大道理。Except it is not true. None of these things need happen. The truth is that China and the rest of emerging Asia could actually see their workforces expand over the next 25 years if they fell in line with norms in much of the western world.但这个画面并不是真实的。所有这些都可以避免。事实是,未来25年,中国及其他亚洲新兴市场国家有可能看到本国劳动力壮大,如果他们实行与西方大部分国家相似的标准的话。To be clear, the decline in the working-age population in China and several of its neighbours is, barring some highly unlikely turn of events, certain to happen.需要澄清的是,中国与其多个邻国肯定会出现适龄劳动人口减少的情况(除非发生一些极不可能的事件)。As the first chart shows, the World Bank foresees a 10 per cent decline in those aged between 15 and 64 in China by 2040, with larger falls still expected in Japan, Thailand, Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong, although most of Southeast Asia is likely to see an increase.如下面的图一所示,世行预计,到2040年中国年龄介于15岁至64岁之间的人口将减少10%,而日本、泰国、新加坡、韩国及香港地区的适龄劳动人口预计将出现更大降幅,但多数东南亚国家的适龄劳动人口可能出现增长。But the size of the working-age population should not be mistaken for the size of the labour force — many of the former are neither working nor looking for a job.但“适龄劳动人口”的规模不应被误认为是“劳动力”规模——前者中的许多人既不工作也不找工作。Take reasonable measures to address this, and the data show that the resultant increase in the participation rate should be larger than the decline in the working-age population, meaning more workers, not fewer.如果采取合理措施应对,数据显示,由此带来的劳动参与率的提高幅度应会大于适龄劳动人口的降幅,这意味着劳动力增多,而非减少。China’s low retirement age, for urban workers at least, is a case in point. Official pension ages in urban areas are 50 for blue-collar women, 55 for white-collar women and 60 for men, significantly lower than in most western countries.中国较低的退休年龄(至少对城镇职工而言)就是一个恰当的例子。在城市地区,蓝领女性开始领取退休金的法定年龄为50岁,白领女性为55岁,男性为60岁,显著低于大多数西方国家。One might assume this is a natural result of China having a lower life expectancy than the west. There is a grain of truth to this: China’s life expectancy of 76 (74.8 for men, 77.3 for women) is about three years lower than the western average.人们可能会认为这是中国预期寿命低于西方的自然结果。有一点道理:中国人的预期寿命为76岁(男性74.8岁、女性77.3岁),约比西方平均水平低三岁。But, firstly, the typical Chinese urban worker will almost certainly live longer than 76, with the average being dragged down by poorer rural dwellers.但是,首先,典型的中国城市劳动者的寿命几乎肯定会超过76岁,因为较贫困的农村居民拉低了平均值。Secondly, and more importantly, China’s pension age looks unsustainably low even when correcting for the life expectancy gap. Data collated by the World Bank in its document Live Long and Prosper: Ageing in East Asia and Pacific illustrate this clearly.其次(更重要的是),即使就预期寿命差做了调整,中国的退休年龄看起来也是低得不可持续。世行在《长寿与繁荣:东亚与太平洋地区的老龄化》(Live Long and Prosper: Ageing in East Asia and Pacific)报告中收集的数据清楚地阐明了这一点。Chinese women can typically expect to live for virtually 30 years in retirement, with women in Vietnam, Thailand and Malaysia also enjoying long retirements, on average.中国女性通常可以预期退休后再活差不多30年,平均而言,越南、泰国以及马来西亚的女性也可以享受较长的退休时间。In contrast, women in richer countries such as Sweden, Germany and the US can realistically expect 20 years or less of retirement, as the second chart shows.相比之下,如下面的图二所示,瑞典、德国以及美国等较富裕国家的女性实际上只能盼得20年或者更短的退休时间。For men, the gap is not so extreme but the average retirement span in China, at 18 years, is still longer than in Sweden, Germany or the US. Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia would appear to have more scope still to raise retirement ages.对男性而言,差距不是那么大,但中国男性的平均退休期为18年,仍然比瑞典、德国及美国的男性要长。泰国、马来西亚以及印度尼西亚似乎有更大的空间来延长退休年龄。Not everyone, of course, retires at the official retirement age, particularly if their pension is inadequate, but a closer look at the ages Chinese people actually do retire at vividly illustrates the scope for change.当然,并非所有人都在法定退休年龄退休,尤其是如果他们的养老金不充裕的话,但仔细观察中国人的实际退休年龄能够很清晰地展现出改革空间。As the third chart shows, by the age of 60, just one in three urban women and 55 per cent of urban men are still in the labour force. In contrast, two-thirds of rural women and 80 per cent of rural men are still in the labour force at this age.如图三所示,到60岁时,只有三分之一的城市女性与55%的城市男性仍坚持工作。相比之下,三分之二的农村女性以及80%的农村男性60岁时仍在劳动。This divergence is likely to be driven by the financial pressure on the poorer, rural population to continue working for longer.这种差异很可能是经济压力造成的,迫使较贫困的农村人口继续劳动更长时间。But given that most rural labourers are engaged in physically tough, back-breaking agricultural work, it certainly suggests most urban workers should be perfectly capable of continuing in their generally less physically demanding jobs for longer, although there will clearly be some exceptions to this, such as the construction industry.但是,鉴于大多数农村劳动力从事的都是繁重劳累的农活,这恰恰反衬出,大多数城市劳动者应该完全有能力继续再干一段时间他们通常不需太多体力的工作,虽然有一些明显的例外,比如建筑业。Overall, though, the World Bank says that average retirement ages in China (as well as Vietnam) among urban workers in formal jobs are three to four years below the aly low official retirement ages.不过,总体而言,世行表示,中国(以及越南)拥有正式工作的城市劳动力的平均退休年龄比本已较低的官方退休年龄还要低3至4年。Across east and Southeast Asia as a whole, the Bank argues this trend is driven by government policy.世行认为,在整个东亚以及东南亚地区,这种趋势是由政府政策造成的。Indonesians and Vietnamese are not allowed to continue working beyond the normal retirement age (55 in the formal sector in Indonesia, 60 for men and 55 for women in Vietnam).印度尼西亚和越南不允许超过退休年龄者继续工作(印尼正规部门退休年龄为55岁,越南男性为60、女性55岁)。In China, meanwhile, late retirement is “effectively penalised”, with the additional year of pension contributions not increasing the individual’s pension.而在中国,晚退休“实际上是不利的”,养老金缴费年头延长了,但个人养老金数额并未增加。Early retirement is incentivised in many countries. In Vietnam, early retirement “actually increases pension wealth because the penalty is too low to offset the extra benefits received”, the World Bank says, adding that “the Philippines rewards early retirement with a large increase in pension wealth and penalises late retirement at a rate of 17 per cent a year”.许多国家都采取激励措施鼓励提前退休。世行表示,在越南提前退休“实际上增加了养老金财富,因为惩罚太少,不会抵消额外收益。菲律宾对提前退休者的奖励是大幅增加养老金财富,对延迟退休者则课以一年17%的处罚”。Perhaps unsurprisingly, one of the reforms the World Bank is calling for in east and Southeast Asia is for governments to provide actuarially fair incentives for both early and late retirement.这或许可以解释为什么世行会呼吁东亚及东南亚国家的政府进行改革,为提前退休和延迟退休者提供真正公平的激励。The Bank is also recommending that countries equalise retirement ages for men and women, correcting a glaring anomaly whereby women can often retire at a younger age despite enjoying greater life expectancy in every country in the region, as well as linking retirement ages to changes in life expectancy.世行还建议各国把男性及女性退休年龄拉平,以纠正一个明显的反常现象,即该地区所有国家的女性预期寿命都要更长些,却往往更早退休。世行还建议各国将退休年龄与预期寿命变化挂钩。Its concern is not just that de facto retirement ages may fail to rise in line with life expectancy, but that they may fall still further.世行担心的不仅是实际退休年龄可能无法与预期寿命保持同步增长,而且还可能会进一步下降。“As East Asia and Pacific continues its rapid urbanisation, coverage of pension systems grows, and rising incomes provide new opportunities for people to retire before they are no longer physically capable of work, thereby creating a significant risk that average lengths of working lives will fall,” it says.世行表示:“随着东亚与太平洋地区继续快速城市化,养老金制度覆盖范围也随之扩大。收入的增加为人们提供了新的机会,他们可以不用等到体力无法负荷工作时再退休,这便产生了一个显著的风险,即人们的平均劳动寿命将缩短。”Moreover, bringing retirement systems more into line with western norms is not the only measure that would increase the workforce in ageing Asian nations.此外,让退休制度更加符合西方标准并不是亚洲老龄化国家增加劳动力的唯一措施。The World Bank also argues that many Asian countries have scope to significantly increase female labour force participation, which typically lags behind that of men, for instance by improving public childcare provision. They could also expand their labour force via immigration, although this is obviously a zero-sum game.世行还指出,许多亚洲国家具备空间大幅提高女性劳动力参与率,这一指标通常落后于男性,可采取措施包括改善公共幼儿托管务的提供。它们还可以通过增加移民来扩充自己的劳动力,不过这显然是一个零和游戏。The Bank provides a vivid demonstration of how these effects could play out in China.世行生动地展示了这些措施将会在中国产生什么样的影响。As widely reported, the baseline, business-as-usual scenario, does indeed show the labour force declining 10 per cent or so between now and 2040.就像媒体广泛报道的一样,如果一切照旧,正如基准线所示,从现在起到2040年中国的劳动力会下降10%左右。But, as the final chart shows, if China adopted measures to retain older workers in the labour force, its working population would barely fall at all until at least the mid-2030s.但正如最后一张图所示,如果中国采取措施延长退休年龄,至少到2030年代中期,其劳动人口基本不会下降。Alternatively, if China succeeded in achieving a degree of convergence between male and female employment rates, the labour force would be just as large in 2040 as it is today. (This calculation is based on female labour force participation rising at an annual rate of 1/40th of the 2010 gap between men and women, thereby eliminating three-quarters of the gap by 2040.)另外,如果中国能成功地缩小男女就业率的差距,至2040年其劳动力将与现在一样多。(该计算是基于女性劳动力参与率将以2010年男女就业率差距四十分之一的年增长率持续上升,这样至2040年中国就能消除四分之三的男女就业率差距)。It is important to note that the “elderly” and “female” lines in the chart are mutually exclusive. If both of these issues were addressed, China’s labour force would actually rise by about 10 per cent by 2040, rather than falling by this amount.需要注意的是在该图中,“老年人”和“女性”两条曲线是相互独立的。如果这两个问题都能得到解决,2040年中国的劳动人口不但不会下降10%,反而能增长10%左右。“In the most optimistic scenario, you can actually increase the labour force from the current levels,” says Nithin Umaphathi, co-author of the report. “There is underutilised potential out there.”该报告的合著者尼辛乌玛哈蒂(Nithin Umaphathi)表示:“在最乐观的情况下,中国的劳动力规模甚至会高于当前水平。中国还未充分利用其劳动力潜力。” /201512/416240

  China#39;s Ministry of Transport is reportedly mulling over proposals to regulate increasingly popular online cab hailing services, according to Economic Information Daily on last Wednesday.据经济参考报上周三报道,中国交通部正在考虑针对日益红火的网络预约车务管理办法的意见稿内容。They#39;ve been prompted by safety concerns which have stemmed from incidents involving existing hailing apps such as Didi and Uber.网络预约车务已经引起了对于安全问题的关注。这些问题源于现存的约车app如滴滴打车和优步引起的一系列事故。The new regulations could come as early as the beginning of May, industry insiders said. The new regulations would require cars to be registered on accredited platforms, and only vehicles with transportation permits will be able to sign up.业内人士称,新规最早将于5月初出台。新规将要求车辆在官方认可的平台上进行注册,且只有具有运营许可的车辆才能登记注册。Private car owners who want to get a permit would need to re-register their vehicles.想要获得许可的私家车主需对车辆重新注册。Once they#39;ve done that, their vehicles have to be scrapped after 8 years. Cars for private use face no such deadline.一旦变为营运车辆,其车辆的报废年限就变成了8年。目前,私家车使用不受这类年限限制。 /201604/439613



  A piece of aircraft debris that washed up on a sandbank in Mozambique has a “high possibility” of being from a Boeing 777, the same type of jet as the missing Malaysian airliner MH370, according to Malaysia’s transport minister. 据马来西亚交通部长廖中莱(Liow Tiong Lai)表示,在莫桑比克的一片沙滩上发现了一块飞机碎片,“非常可能”来自波音777——与马来西亚失踪客机MH370为同种机型。 Liow Tiong Lai said the debris would be taken to Australia for further examination and it was not yet possible to determine if it was from the Malaysia Airlines aircraft that went missing on a flight between Kuala Lumpur and Beijing almost two years ago. 廖中莱表示,这块碎片会被带到澳大利亚做进一步检查,目前尚无法确定这块碎片是否来自近两年前在吉隆坡到北京的航线上消失的马航MH370客机。 The disappearance on March 8 2014 of the aircraft with 239 people on board has prompted the largest and most expensive search effort in aviation history. 这架客机于2014年3月8日失踪,机上载有239人。它的失踪推动了航空史上规模最大、金额最高的搜寻活动。 In August a piece of a Boeing 777 wing known as a flaperon washed up on the Indian Ocean island of Reunion and was subsequently confirmed by Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak as belonging to MH370. But an undersea search of a remote part of the ocean off Western Australia has failed to find the final resting place of the aircraft and is due to wind up within months. 去年8月一块波音777机翼碎片(确定为襟副翼)冲上了印度洋法属留尼汪岛(La Réunion),随后获马来西亚总理纳吉布#8226;拉扎克(Najib Razak)确认属于MH370。但在对远离西澳大利亚海岸的一片偏远海域进行海底搜索后,未能发现MH370的最后沉落处,此次搜索活动将在数月内结束。 Only four other 777s have been written off due to accidents since the aircraft type entered service in 1994. None of those was lost over the sea and all are accounted for. 波音777机型自1994年投入使用以来,只有5架飞机整机失事。其他4架都不是在海上失踪的,而且都已确定下落。 “The location reported to be found in Mozambique is consistent with the drift modelling that was undertaken,” said a spokesman for the Australia’s Air Transport Safety Board, which is co-ordinating the undersea search. “But until the debris has been examined we cannot comment on its nature.” 澳大利亚交通安全局(ATSB)目前负责海底搜索的统筹工作,其发言人表示:“报道中莫桑比克的发现位置与此前的漂移建模保持一致。但我们要对这块碎片进行检查后才能对其性质发表。” /201603/430494WikiLeaks released 29 audio recordings Wednesday that it said were taken from Democratic National Committee servers.维基解密星期三公布了据它所称从民主党全国委员会的务器上获取的29条录音。The voicemails, apparently copied from email accounts of seven DNC members, included party associates upset by Bernie Sanders#39; influence on the Democratic Party.这些语音邮件显然是从七位民主党全国委员会成员的电邮账号中拷贝下来的,其中有些同僚对桑德斯在民主党中的影响感到不满。Reports say one caller did not want the Vermont senator to speak at the Democratic National Convention and was against Sanders#39; choices for the party#39;s 2016 platform.报道称,一位留言者不希望这位来自佛蒙特州的联邦参议员在民主党全国代表大会上发言,并且反对桑德斯提出的该党2016年竞选纲领。The latest release is the second in the last few days. The release of 20,000 emails just before the opening of the Democratic convention prompted the organization#39;s chairwoman, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, to step down.这是维基解密在过去几天里第二次公布泄露的文件。第一次恰好在民主党全国代表大会开幕之前,维基解密公布的2万份邮件,导致民主党全国代表发挥主席黛比·舒尔茨辞职。WikiLeaks, a group that publishes original documents from anonymous sources and leakers, released the data without indicating its source. The emails were sent during a 17-month period between January 2015 and May of this year. The DNC announced in June that its systems had been hacked.维基解密是一个公布匿名消息人士和泄密者提供的原始文件的组织,它在公布这些文件时没有说明其消息来源。这些邮件是2015年1月到今年5月这17个月之间发送的。民主党全国代表大会6月时宣布,它的系统被黑客入侵。Democratic officials said at that time that hackers based in Russia were responsible for the intrusion.民主党官员当时说,俄罗斯的黑客对这一入侵负责。The party organization has not commented on the emails released by WikiLeaks, but neither has it disputed their authenticity.民主党全国代表大会没有就维基解密公布的电邮发表,但也没有质疑其真实性。The manager of Sanders#39; political campaign, Jeff Weaver, said the emails confirmed ;what many of us have known for some time,; that DNC members were ;actively helping the Clinton effort and trying to hurt Bernie Sanders#39; campaign.#39;#39;桑德斯竞选团队经理维弗尔说,电邮实了“我们很多人已经知道一段时间的事情”,那就是,民主党全国委员会成员“积极地为克林顿助选,并试图损害桑德斯的竞选。” /201608/457592

  The study ranked the cities based on 29 assessment indicators in six areas, including city safety, public service facilities, natural environment, cultural environment, transportation, and pollution level.这份调查对城市的排名基于六大领域的29项指数评估,其中包括:城市安全、公共务设施、自然环境、文化环境、交通,以及污染水平。Qingdao tops the livability index list for its outstanding performance in all the six areas. Kunming#39;s ranking benefits from its pleasant natural environment and characteristic cultural environment. Sanya wins for its air quality and Dalian performs well in city safety and natural environment. Weihai, meanwhile, cracks the top five due to its natural and cultural environment.青岛之所以在宜居指数名单中名列第一,是因为它在六大领域中都很出色。昆明之所以名列前茅归功于它怡人的自然环境以及富于特色的文化环境。三亚以其空气质量致胜,大连的城市安全与自然环境指数较高,而威海以其自然与文化环境跻身前五。The reason Beijing is placed at the bottom of the list lies in its environment pollution, inconvenient transportation and little appreciation of its natural environment by its residents.北京在名单中垫底是由于环境污染,交通不便以及居民对其自然环境的极少珍视。The study also shows that livable index of the 40 surveyed cities are generally low, the average point of which is 59.92, lower than basic residents#39; acceptance point of 60.调查也显示,40个被调查城市的宜居指数总体上较低,平均指数为59.92,低于基本居民可接受的60分。 排名前十的城市分别为:青岛、昆明、三亚、大连、威海、苏州、珠海、厦门、深圳、重庆。 而北京和广州则分别位居倒数第一名和倒数第二名。 /201606/449950Beijing has signalled that a long-awaited trading link between Shenzhen stocks and Hong Kong’s market is set to open before the end of the year – roughly two years on from the milestone launch of a link with Shanghai.北京方面表示,在“沪港通”启动大约两年后,市场期待已久的“深港通”也将在今年底前启动。The so-called “Connect” will for the first time allow international investors to trade stocks listed in the southern city, home to many more tech and start-up enterprises than Shanghai, which is known for hosting a greater proportion of state-owned enterprises and banks – neither of which are particularly popular with international investors just now.所谓的“深港通”将首次允许国际投资者买卖在深圳这座华南城市上市的股票。深圳股市上市企业中的科技企业和创业型企业远多于上海股市。在上海股市上市企业中,国企和占比更高。目前而言,无论是深市还是沪市,都不是特别受国际投资者青睐。“Preparatory work related to the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock connect is basically completed, and the State Council has approved a ‘Draft Plan for Implementation of the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect’,” Premier Li Keqiang said in a statement.“深港通相关准备工作已基本就绪,国务院已批准《深港通实施方案》,”中国总理李克强在一次会议上表示。The Shenzhen link has long been expected by the market, with Hong Kong regulators and the exchange saying they are y. Final testing and preparatory work is expected to take roughly another three months. That would allow the link to open as soon as November.市场对“深港通”期待已久,香港监管机构和港交所(HKEx)表示,自己已做好准备。最终的测试和准备工作预计还需要大约3个月时间。这意味着,“深港通”最早将于今年11月开通。 /201608/461303

  For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong.” HL Mencken could have been thinking of today’s politics. The western world undoubtedly confronts complex problems, notably, the dissatisfaction of so many citizens. Equally, aspirants to power, such as Donald Trump in the US and Marine Le Pen in France, offer clear, simple and wrong solutions — notably, nationalism, nativism and protectionism.“对于每一个复杂的问题,都有一个明确、简单和错误的。”H#8226;L#8226;门肯(H.L.Mencken)这句话完全适用于今天的政治。西方世界无疑面临着复杂的问题,尤其是许多公民的不满情绪。同样的,权力的追求者,比如美国的唐纳德#8226;特朗普(Donald Trump)和法国的马琳#8226;勒庞(Marine Le Pen),提供了明确、简单和错误的解决方案——尤其是民族主义、本土主义和保护主义。The remedies they offer are bogus. But the illnesses are real. If governing elites continue to fail to offer convincing cures, they might soon be swept away and, with them, the effort to marry democratic self-government with an open and co-operative world order.他们提供的疗法是虚假的。但这些疾病是真实的。如果执政精英还无法提供令人信的疗法,他们可能很快就会被扫地出门,民主自治政府融入开放和合作的世界秩序的努力也会随之付诸东流。What is the explanation for this backlash? A large part of the answer must be economic. Rising prosperity is a good in itself. But it also creates the possibility of positive-sum politics. This underpins democracy because it is then feasible for everybody to become better off at the same time. Rising prosperity reconciles people to economic and social disruption. Its absence foments rage.如何解释这种反弹呢?的很大一部分必定是经济方面的。经济日益繁荣本身是一件好事,而且它还使正和(positive-sum)政治成为可能。这构成了民主的基础,因为在这种情况下,有可能使所有人的境况同时变好。经济日益繁荣让人们愿意接受经济和社会的扰乱,反之将激起愤怒。The McKinsey Global Institute sheds powerful light on what has been happening in a report entitled, tellingly, Poorer than their Parents?, which demonstrates how many households have been suffering from stagnant or falling real incomes. On average between 65 and 70 per cent of households in 25 high-income economies experienced this between 2005 and 2014. In the period between 1993 and 2005, however, only麦肯锡全球研究院(McKinsey Global Institute)的一份报告强有力地说明了目前正在发生的情况。这份报告有一个很能说明问题的标题《比他们的父母更穷?》(Poorer than their Parents?),报告展示了有多少家庭的实际收入出现了停滞或者下降。2005年至2014年,25个高收入经济体中平均65%到70%的家庭出现了这样的情况。然而,在1993年到2005年,只有2%的家庭出现了这种情况。这一点也适用于市场收入。由于财政再分配,实际可配收入停滞或者下降的家庭比例在20%到25%之间。(见图)2 per cent of households suffered stagnant or declining real incomes. This applies to market income. Because of fiscal redistribution, the proportion suffering from stagnant real disposable incomes was between 20 and 25 per cent. (See charts.)麦肯锡通过对6000名法国人、英国人和美国人的调查,对个人满意度进行了研究。咨询师们发现,个人满意度更多取决于人们的境况相对于过去和他们境况相似的人而言是否在改善,而非他们的境况相对于今天比他们更富裕的人而言是否在改善。因此,人们更满意于境况的上升,即使他们未能追上更为富裕的同时代人。比起不平等的加剧,收入停滞更让人们感到烦恼。McKinsey has examined personal satisfaction through a survey of 6,000 French, British and Americans. The consultants found that satisfaction depended more on whether people were advancing relative to others like them in the past than whether they were improving relative to those better off than themselves today. Thus people preferred becoming better off, even if they were not catching up with contemporaries better off still. Stagnant incomes bother people more than rising inequality. The main explanation for the prolonged stagnation in real incomes is the financial crises and subsequent weak recovery. These experiences have destroyed popular confidence in the competence and probity of business, administrative and political elites. But other shifts have also been adverse. Among these are ageing (particularly important in Italy) and declining shares of wages in national income (particularly important in the US, UK and Netherlands).实际收入长期停滞的主要解释是金融危机和之后的复苏乏力。这些经历摧毁了公众对于商业、行政和政治精英的能力和诚信的信心。然而,其他一些变化也是不利的,比如老龄化(这一点在意大利尤为重要)和国民收入中工资比例下降(这一点在美国、英国和荷兰尤为重要)。Real income stagnation over a far longer period than any since the second world war is a fundamental political fact. But it cannot be the only driver of discontent. For many of those in the middle of the income distribution, cultural changes also appear threatening. So, too, does immigration — globalisation made flesh. Citizenship of their nations is the most valuable asset owned by most people in wealthy countries. They will resent sharing this with outsiders. Britain’s vote to leave the EU was a warning.比二战以来任何时候持续时间都要长得多的实际收入停滞是一个基本的政治事实。但这不可能是不满情绪唯一的驱动因素。对很多处于收入分配中段的人来说,文化上的改变看起来也很危险。移民也令他们感到危险——全球化让他们毛骨悚然。对富裕国家的多数人来说,公民身份是他们拥有的最宝贵的资产。和外人分享这种资产会让他们愤怒。英国投票决定退出欧盟(EU)是一个警告。So what is to be done? If Mr Trump were to become president of the US, it might aly be too late. But suppose that this does not happen or, if it does, that the result is not as dire as I fear. What then might be done?那么,应该做些什么?如果特朗普当上美国总统,也许就太迟了。但假如这种情况不会发生,或者就算发生了,结果也不如我担忧的那样严重。那时我们应该做些什么呢?First, understand that we depend on one another for our prosperity. It is essential to balance assertions of sovereignty with the requirements of global co-operation. Global governance, while essential, must be oriented towards doing things countries cannot do for themselves. It must focus on providing the essential global public goods. Today this means climate change is a higher priority than further opening of world trade or capital flows.第一,理解我们的繁荣是相互依赖的。在主权主张和全球合作的必要之间取得平衡至关重要。全球治理尽管极其重要,但必须以做国家无法独立进行的事情为导向。全球治理必须专注于提供必不可少的全球公共产品。今天,这意味着气候变化是比进一步开放世界贸易或者资本流动更优先的事项。Second, reform capitalism. The role of finance is excessive. The stability of the financial system has improved. But it remains riddled with perverse incentives. The interests of shareholders are given excessive weight over those of other stakeholders in corporations.第二,改革资本主义。金融的作用过大。金融系统的稳定性有所改善,但依然充满了不合常理的激励措施。比起公司内其他利益相关者的利益,股东利益被赋予了过度的重要性。Third, focus international co-operation where it will help governments achieve significant domestic objectives. Perhaps the most important is taxation. Wealth owners, who depend on the security created by legitimate democracies, should not escape taxation.第三,专注于能够帮助政府实现重要的国内目标的国际合作。其中最重要的可能是税收。财富拥有者依赖合法的民主政府所提供的安全,他们不应逃税。Fourth, accelerate economic growth and improve opportunities. Part of the answer is stronger support for aggregate demand, particularly in the eurozone. But it is also essential to promote investment and innovation. It may be impossible to transform economic prospects. But higher minimum wages and generous tax credits for working people are effective tools for raising incomes at the bottom of the distribution.第四,加快经济增长,增多机会。这个问题的部分在于对总需求提供更有力的持,尤其是在欧元区。但改善投资和创新也至关重要。改变经济前景也许是不可能的,但为工薪阶层提高最低工资和提供慷慨的税收优惠,是为处于收入分配底层的人提高收入的有效办法。Fifth, fight the quacks. It is impossible to resist pressure to control flows of un-skilled workers into advanced economies. But this will not transform wages. Equally, protection against imports is costly and will also fail to raise the share of manufacturing in employment significantly. True, that share is far higher in Germany than in the US or UK. But Germany runs a huge trade surplus and has a strong comparative ad-vantage in manufactures. This is not a generalisable state of affairs. (See chart.)第五,打击“庸医”。人们要求控制没有一技之长的劳动者流入发达经济体,这种压力是不可能抵抗的。但这并不会改变工资。同样的,反对进口的保护主义措施代价高昂,并且无法显著提高制造业在总就业中的比例。的确,德国的这一比例比英美要高得多。但德国有高额的贸易顺差,在制造业有很强的比较优势。这并不是一种能够一般化的情况。(见图)Above all, recognise the challenge. Prolonged stagnation, cultural upheavals and policy failures are combining to shake the balance between democratic legitimacy and global order. The candidacy of Mr Trump is a result. Those who reject the chauvinist response must come forward with imaginative and ambitious ideas aimed at re-establishing that balance. It is not going to be easy. But failure must not be accepted. Our civilisation itself is at stake.最重要的是,要认识到挑战。长期停滞、文化颠覆、政策失败正在共同动摇民主合法性和全球秩序之间的平衡。特朗普成为共和党总统候选人就是一个结果。那些反对沙文主义反应的人必须提出有想象力、有抱负、旨在重建这一平衡的想法。这不会是一件容易的事情。但我们不可能接受失败。面临威胁的正是我们的文明本身。 /201607/455935





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