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2017年10月19日 11:27:25来源:豆瓣问答

A decision is a choice made from among alternative courses of action that are available. The purpose of making a decision is to establish and achieve organizational goals and objectives. The reason for making a decision is that a problem exists, goals or objectives are wrong, or something is standing in the way of accomplishing them.Thus the decision-making process is fundamental to management. Almost everything a manager does involves decisions, indeed, some suggest that the management process is decision making. Although managers cannot predict the future, many of their decisions require that they consider possible future events. Often managers must make a best guess at that the future will be and try to leave as little as possible to chance, but since uncertainty is always there, risk accompanies decisions. Sometimes the consequences of a poor decision are slight; at other times they are serious.Choice is the opportunity to select among alternatives. If there is no choice, there is no decision to be made. Decision making is the process of choosing, and many decisions have a broad range of choice. For example, a student may be able to choose among a number of different courses in order to implement the decision to obtain a college degree. Fox managers, every decision has constraints based on policies, procedures, laws, precedents, and the like. These constraints exist at all levels of the organization.Alternatives are the possible courses of action from which choices can be made. If there are no alternatives, there is no choice and, therefore, no decision. If no alternatives are seen, often it means that a thorough job of examining the problems has not been done. For example, managers sometimes treat problems in an either/or fashion; this is their way of simplifying complex problems. But the tendency to simplify blinds them to other alternatives.At the managerial level, decision making includes limiting alternatives as well as identifying them, and the range is from highly limited to practically unlimited.Decision makers must have some way of determining which of several alternatives is best - that is, which contributes the most to the achievement of organizational goals. An organizational goal is an end or a state of affairs the organization seeks to reach. Because individuals (and organizations) frequently have different ideas about how to attain the goals, the best choice may depend on who makes the decision. Frequently, departments or units within an organization make decisions that are good for them individually but that are less than optimal for the larger organization. Called suboptimization, this is a trade-off that increases the advantages to one unit or function but decreases the advantages to another unit or function. For example, the marketing manager may argue effectively for an increased advertising budget. In the larger scheme of things, however, increased funding for research to improve the products might be more beneficial to the organization.These trade-offs occur because there are many objectives that organizations wish to attain simultaneously. Some of these objectives are more important than others, but the order and degree of importance often vary from person to person and from department to department. Different managers define the same problem in different terms. When presented with a common case, sales managers tend to see sales problems, production managers see production problems, and so on.The ordering and importance of multiple objectives is also based, in part, on the values of the decision maker. Such values are personal; they are hard to understand, even by the individual, because they are so dynamic and complex. In many business situations different people's values about acceptable degrees of risk and profitability cause disagreement about the correctness of decisions.People often assume that a decision is an isolated phenomenon. But from a systems point of view, problems have multiple causes, and decisions have intended and unintended consequences. An organization is an ongoing entity, and a decision made today may have consequences far into the future. Thus the skilled manager looks toward the future consequences of current decisions.决策是从可供挑选的行动方向中作选择。决策的目的是建立并实现一个机构的目的和目标。之所以要决策是因为有问题存在,目标或目的的不适当,或者有某种东西妨碍了目标或目的的实现。因此,决策过程对于管理非常重要。一个管理者做的差不多所有事情都离不开决策。有人甚至提出管理就是决策。虽然管理者不能预见未来,但是他们要做的很多决策需要他们考虑将来可能发生的情况。管理者常常必须对未来的情况作出最佳的猜测,使偶然性尽可能少地发生。但是因为总是在不确定的因素,所以决策往往伴随着风险。一个不当的决策的后果有时不严重而有时严重。选择就是从多个选项中进行挑选的机会。没有选择就没有决策。决策本身就是一个选择的过程。很多决策有很宽的选择范围。例如,一个学生为了自己获得学位的志向,可以在许多不同的课程里作选择。对管理者来说,每一个决策都受着政策、程序、法律、先例等方面的制约。这些制约在一个机构的各个阶层都存在。选择项就是可供选择、可能的行动方向;没有选择项,就没有选择,也就没有了决策。如果看不到有不同的选择项,说明对问题还没有进行全面的研究。一些管理者有时用非此即彼的方式处理问题,这虽然是他们简化复杂问题的方法,但是习惯了简化常使他们看不到别的解决办法。在管理这个层次上,决策包括识别选择项和减少选择项两个步骤;其范围可以从极为有限的几个选择项到几乎无限多的选择项。决策者必须有办法能从多种选择里确定一种为最佳,也就是说哪个对实现机构目标帮助最大,机构的目标也就是此机构所寻求的事态的结果。如何实现目标,个人和组织都有不同的看法。因此,最佳选择可能就取决于决策人了。通常一个组织内的单位或部门作出的决策可能有利于本部门、本单位,但对比它们大的机构来说就不是最佳选择了。这就是所谓的局部优化:增加对一单位或部门的便利同时减少对另一个单位或部门的便利,这是在两利不能兼顾的情况下所做的取舍。例如,经理可以把增加广告预算的必要性讲得头头是道,但是从总的布局看,增加改进产品的科研费用也许对这个组织更有好处。因为一个组织希望同时达到的目标很多,所以就要进行权衡,虽然有些目标比另一些重要,但重要程度和次序则常常因人而异,因部门而异。管理者不同对同一问题所做的解说也是不同的。把同样一种情况摆在他们面前,销售经理看的是销售问题,生产经理看的是生产问题,如此等等。多个目标的排序和重要性在某种程度上是以决策者的价值观为依据的。这些价值观念是个性的,很难捉摸,甚至抱有这种观念的人自己也很难弄清楚;这是因为价值观不断变化,也很复杂。很多商业活动中,不同的人对于风险和收益的可接受程度的价值观不一样,这就导致了他们对决策正确与否的看法也不同。人们常以为决策是一个孤立的现象,但从系统的观念看,问题的产生有多种原因,所以决策既有意料中的结果,又有意料外的结果。一个组织是一个发展的实体,所以今天所做的决策对未来可能产生意义深远的影响。因此一个老练的管理者常要考虑当前决策在将来产生的结果。 Article/200802/28001。

  • Love is a wonderful thing, but is it possible to fall in love with someone at first sight? Many people say they have done this. How can it be possible? Surely it takes a time to get to know someone and then fall in love. I think falling in love at first sight is dangerous. You don’t really know the person. Maybe after you’ve built your life around them you’ll find lots of faults in them and suddenly be disappointed. Then you’ll have to fall out of love. Anyway, is it really love at first sight or is it love at first conversation? And what if the other person doesn’t fall in love with you at first sight? This could be a bit painful. It could also be embarrassing. I think I like the traditional way of falling in love after 257 dates. Article/201105/138071。
  • About a week later,we were sailing round the rocky coast of northern Scotland in very bad weather.It was difficult to see anything because of the thick fog.One evening there was a great crash,and the officers ran out to see what had happened.I thought we had hit a rock,but in fact it was a small boat As we watched,the boat broke in two,and went to the bottom with all its men,except the one passenger.At the moment of the crash,this man managed to jump up and catch the side of the ship and pull himself up.大约一周以后,在非常恶劣的天气条件下,我们沿苏格兰北部的礁岩海岸行驶着。由于大雾弥漫,很难看见什么东西。一天晚上,有一声猛烈的撞击声,高级船员们都跑出去看发生了什么。我以为我们是撞上了一块岩石,但实际上是一条小船。我们观看时,小船碎成了两半,除了这一位乘客外其余的人连船一起沉入海底了。在撞船的那一刻,这个人用力跳起来,抓住了我们这条船的船舷,挣扎着上了船。The captain brought him into the round-house He was smallish but well-built,with an open,sunburnt face,and bright,amused eyes When he took off his long coat,I could see that he had a pair of pistols and was wearing a sword at his side.Although his life had clearly been in great danger,he seemed very calm,and spoke politely to the captain Hoseason was looking with interest at the man#39;s clothes.He Was Wear ing a hat with feathers,a blue coat with silver buttons,and expensive-looking lace round his neck.船长把他带进了后甲板室里。他个子有点小,但身体强壮,长着一张开朗的、晒黑的脸和一双明亮的、逗人喜欢的眼睛。当他脱下长大衣时,我能看见他带着一对手,佩着一把剑。虽然他的生命显然处于极大的危险之中,但他看起来很镇静,并且有礼貌地和船长说着话。霍齐亚森饶有兴趣地看看那个男人的衣。他戴着一顶插有羽毛的帽子,穿着一件带银扣子的蓝外衣,脖子那儿有一圈看似贵重的花边。lsquo;I#39;m sorry about the boat,sir,rsquo; said the captain.;就船的事我很抱歉,先生,;船长说道。lsquo;I#39;ve lost some grand friends today,rsquo; replied the stranger,lsquo;and that#39;s worse than losing ten boats.rsquo;;今天我失去了一些好朋友,;陌生人回答道,;这比失掉10条船更糟糕。;lsquo;Well,sir,there are more men in the world than boats,rsquo; replied the captain,still watching him closely.lsquo;I know,be cause I#39;ve been in France,like you.rsquo;;唔,先生,这世界上人比船多,;船长回答道,眼睛仍紧紧地盯着陌生人,;我知道,因为我和你一样曾经在法国待过。;He said these last words clearly and carefully.They seemed to have a special meaning.The stranger put his hand quickly on his pistol.船长既清晰又当心地吐出了最后几个字。它们似乎有一种特殊的含义。陌生人迅速地把手搁到手上。lsquo;Don#39;t worry,rsquo; said Hoseason.lsquo;Ye#39;ve a French soldier#39;s coat on your back and a Scottish tongue in your head,that#39;s true,but so has many an honest man these days.rsquo;;别担心。;霍齐亚森说道,;你穿着一件法国士兵的外套,但又操着苏格兰口音,那不假,但现今有很多诚实的人都这样。;lsquo;Well,sir,rsquo; replied the stranger,lsquo;I must tell you that I#39;m one of those honest Highlanders who were proud to fight for their homes,their clan and their country in 1745,against the English King.And I must tell you another thing.If King George#39;s soldiers find me,I#39;ll be in trouble.I was on my way to France,where some of my clansmen live now.But in the fog my boat missed the French ship that was meeting me.So if you can take me to France,I#39;ll pay you well.rsquo;;好吧,先生,;陌生人说道,;我必须告诉你我是那些以自己在1745年反抗英格兰国王、为家园而战、为部族而战、为国家而战为荣的诚实的高地人之一。我还得告诉你另外一件事。如果乔治国王的士兵发现我,我将会有麻烦。我要去法国,我的一些族人现在住在那儿。但是在雾中我的小船错过了来接我的法国船。如果你能把我带到法国的话,我将好好酬谢你。;He opened his purse and showed that it was full of gold coins.The captain seemed excited as he looked at the money,and then at the man#39;s face.他打开钱包,示意那里面装满了金币。船长看看钱接着又看看那人的脸,显得激动的样子。lsquo;To France?rsquo;he replied.lsquo;No,I can#39;t do that.But to the Highlands,aye,we can discuss that.rsquo; They sat down together,and in the end agreed that the captain would take the stranger to Loch Linnhe,on the northwest coast of Scot land,for sixty pounds.There the Highlander would be among friends,and safe from the English army.He and Hoseason shook hands,and the captain left me alone with the stranger.;去法国?;他答道,;不,我不能那样做。但如果是去高地,对,我们还可以商量商量那个。;他们坐在一起,最后达成协议:船长将把陌生人带到苏格兰西北海岸的林荷湖,条件是给他60镑。在那儿这位高地人将置身于朋友之中,并因远离英格兰军队而很安全。他和霍齐亚森握握手,然后把我和陌生人单独留在一起。He had told the captain that the gold was not his own.Some of the Highlanders had escaped to France after the Forty-Five,but their friends and clansmen in Scotland sometimes managed to find a little money to send them.It was this man#39;s job to take the money across to France,and he did this by travelling secretly to Scotland as often as possible.I thought he was very brave.lsquo;If he#39;s caught by the English army,they#39;ll kill him!rsquo; I told myself.I liked the way he seemed to enjoy living dangerously.他已告诉过船长金子不是他自己的。在1745年政变后,有些高地人逃到了法国,但他们在苏格兰的一些朋友和族人有时设法找到一点钱送给他们。这个人的使命是把钱带到法国,他通常是通过秘密地尽量常去苏格兰来完成他的使命的。我认为他很勇敢。;如果他被英格兰军队抓住了,他们会杀了他!;我自言自语道。我喜欢他看似喜欢冒险地生活的样子。When he asked me for whisky,I had to go to ask the cap tain for the key to the cupboard.I found Hoseason and his officers talking quietly in a corner,and heard them planning to kill the stranger and steal his money.They seemed to think that I would help them,and asked me to bring them secretly some guns from the round-house.I went slowly back to the stranger,not sure what I should do.But when I entered the round-house,and saw him eating his supper,I decided at once.他找我要威士忌时,我不得不去找船长要小橱子的钥匙。我发现霍齐亚森船长和高级船员们在一个角落里悄声地谈论着,而且我听到他们计划杀掉这位陌生人并偷走他的钱财。他们似乎认为我能帮他们,让我从后甲板室给他们偷偷地拿些来。我慢慢地回到陌生人那儿,不清楚该怎么办。但当我进了后甲板室并看见他在吃晚餐时,我立刻做出了决定。 Article/201203/174906。
  • 她母亲气愤愤地说:“我们既然不预备去看彬格莱先生,当然就无从知道他喜欢什么。” “可是你忘啦,妈妈,”伊丽莎白说,“我们将来可以在跳舞会上碰到他的,郎格太太不是答应过把他介绍给我们吗?” Mr. Bennet was among the earliest of those who waited on Mr. Bingley. He had always intended to visit him, though to the last always assuring his wife that he should not go; and till the evening after the visit was paid she had no knowledge of it. It was then disclosed in the following manner. Observing his second daughter employed in trimming a hat, he suddenly addressed her with: "I hope Mr. Bingley will like it, Lizzy. " "We are not in a way to know WHAT Mr. Bingley likes, " said her mother resentfully, "since we are not to visit. " "But you forget, mamma, " said Elizabeth, "that we shall meet him at the assemblies, and that Mrs. Long promised to introduce him. " Article/201011/117864。
  • 有声名著之双城记 Chapter03CHAPTER IIIThe Night ShadowsWonderful fact to reflect upon, that every human creature is constituted to be that profound secret and mystery to every other. A solemn consideration, when enter a great city by night, that every one of those darkly clustered houses encloses its own secret; that every room in every one of them encloses its own secret; that every beating heart in the hundreds of thousands of breasts there, is, if some of its imaginings, a secret to the heart nearest it! Something of the awfulness, even of Death itself, is referable to this. No more can I turn the leaves of this dear book that loved, and vainly hope in time to it all. No more can I look into the depths of this unfathomable water, wherein as momentary lights glanced into it, I have had glimpses of buried treasure and other things submerged. It was appointed that the book should shut with a spring, for ever and for ever, when I had but a page. It was appointed that the water should be locked in an eternal frost, when the light was playing on its surface, and I stood in ignorance on the shore. My friend is dead, my neighbour is dead, my love the darling of my soul, is dead; it is the inexorable consolidation and perpetuation of the secret that was always in that individuality, and which I shall carry in mine to my life's end. In any of the burial-places of this city through which I pass, is there a sleeper more inscrutable than it busy inhabitants are, in their innermost personality, to me or than I am to them? As to this, his natural and not to be alienated inheritance the messenger on horseback had exactly the same possession as the King, the first Minister of State, or the richest merchant in London. So with the three passengers shut up i' the narrow compass of one lumbering old mail-coach; the were mysteries to one another, as complete as if each ha been in his own coach and six, or his own coach and sixty, with the bth of a county between him and the next. The messenger rode back at an easy trot, stopping pretty often at ale-houses by the way to drink, but evincing tendency to keep his own counsel, and to keep his hat cocked over his eyes. He had eyes that assorted very well with that decoration, being of a surface black, with no depth in the colour or form, and much too near together--as if they were afraid of being found out in something, singly, if they kept too far apart. They had a sinister expression, under an old cocked-hat like a three-cornered spittoon, and over a great muffler for the chin and throat, which descended nearly to the wearer's knees. When he stopped for drink, he moved this muffler with his left hand, only while he poured his liquor in with his right; as soon as that was done, he muffled again. No, Jerry, no!' said the messenger, harping on one theme as he rode. `It wouldn't do for you, Jerry. Jerry, you honest tradesman, it wouldn't suit your line of business! Recalled--! Bust me if I don't think he'd been a drinking!' His message perplexed his mind to that degree that he was fain, several times, to take off his hat to scratch his head. Except on the crown, which was raggedly bald, he had stiff black hair, standing jaggedly all over it, and growing down hill almost to his broad, blunt nose. It was so like smith's work, so much more like the top of a strongly spiked wall than a head of hair, that the best of players at leap-frog might have declined him, as the most dangerous man in the world to go over. While he trotted back with the message he was to deliver to the night watchman in his box at the door of Tellson's Bank, by Temple Bar, who was to deliver it to greater authorities within, the shadows of the night took such shapes to him as arose out of the message, and took such shapes to the mare as arose out of her private topics of uneasiness. They seemed to be numerous, for she shied at every shadow on the road. What time, the mail-coach lumbered, jolted, rattled, and bumped upon its tedious way, with its three fellow-inscrutables inside. To whom, likewise, the shadows of the night revealed themselves, in the forms their dozing eyes and wandering thoughts suggested. Tellson's Bank had a run upon it in the mail. As the bank passenger--with an arm drawn through the leathern strap, which did what lay in it to keep him from pounding against the next passenger, and driving him into his comer, whenever the coach got a special jolt--nodded in his place, with half-shut eyes, the little coach-windows, and the coach-lamp dimly gleaming through them, and the bulky bundle of opposite passenger, became the bank, and did a great stroke of business. The rattle of the harness was the chink of money, and more drafts were honoured in five minutes than even Tellson's, with all its foreign and home connexion, ever paid in thrice the time. Then the strong-rooms underground, at Tellson's, with such of their valuable stores and secrets as were known to the passenger (and it was not a little that he knew about them), opened before him, and he went in among them with the great keys and the feebly-burning candle, and found them safe, and strong, and sound, and still, just as he had last seen them. But, though the bank was almost always with him, and though the coach (in a confused way, like the presence of pain under an opiate) was always with him, there was another current of impression that never ceased to run, all through the night. He was on his way to dig some one out of a grave. Now, which of the multitude of faces that showed themselves before him was the true face of the buried person, the shadows of the night did not indicate; but they were all the faces of a man of five-and-forty by years, and they differed principally in the passions they expressed, and in the ghastliness of their worn and wasted state. Pride, contempt, defiance, stubbornness, submission, lamentation, succeeded one another; so did varieties of sunken cheek, cadaverous colour, emaciated hands and figures. But the face was in the main one face, and every head was prematurely white. A hundred times the dozing passenger inquired of this spectre: `Buried how long?' The answer was always the same: `Almost eighteen years.' `You had abandoned all hope of being dug out?' `Long ago.' `You know that you are recalled to life?' `They tell me so. `I hope you care to live?' `I can't say.' `Shall I show her to you? Will you come and see he'' The answers to this question were various and contradictory. Sometimes the broken reply was, `Wait! It would kill me if I saw her too soon.' Sometimes, it was given in a tender rain of tears, and then it was `Take me to her.' Sometimes it was staring and bewildered, and then it was, `I don't know her. I don't understand.' After such imaginary discourse, the passenger in his fancy would dig, and dig, dig--now, with a spade, now with a great key, now with his hands--to dig this wretched creature out. Got out at last, with earth hanging about his face and hair, he would suddenly fall away to dust. The passenger would then start to himself and lower the window, to get the reality of mist and rain on his cheek. Yet even when his eyes were opened on the mist and rain, on the moving patch of light from the lamps, and the hedge at the roadside retreating by jerks, the night shadow's outside the coach would fall into the train of the night shadows within. The real Banking-house by Temple Bar, the real business of the past day, the real strong-rooms, the real express sent after him, and the real message returned, would all be there. Out of the midst of them, the ghostly face would rise, and he would accost it again. `Buried how long?' `Almost eighteen years. `I hope you care to live?' `I can't say.' Dig--dig--dig--until an impatient movement from one of the two passengers would admonish him to pull up the window, draw his arm securely through the leathern strap, and speculate upon the two slumbering forms, until his mind lost its hold of them, and they again slid away into the bank and the grave. `Buried how long?' `Almost eighteen years.' `You had abandoned all hope of being dug out?' `Long ago.' The words were still in his hearing as just spoken--distinctly in his hearing as ever spoken words had been in his life--when the weary passenger started to the consciousness of daylight, and found that the shadows of the night were gone. He lowered the window, and looked out at the rising sun. There was a ridge of ploughed land, with a plough upon it where it had been left last night when the horses were unyoked; beyond, a quiet coppice-wood, in which many leaves of burning red and golden yellow still remained upon the trees. Though the earth was cold and wet, the sky was clear, and the sun rose bright, placid, and beautiful. `Eighteen years!' said the passenger, looking at the sun. `Gracious Creator of day! To be buried alive for eighteen years!' 相关名著: 有声名著之傲慢与偏见 有声名著之儿子与情人 有声名著之红与黑 有声名著之了不起的盖茨比 有声名著之歌剧魅影 有声名著之远大前程 有声名著之巴斯史维尔猎犬 有声名著之吸血鬼 有声名著之野性的呼唤 有声名著之黑骏马 有声名著之海底两万里 有声名著之秘密花园 有声名著之化身士 有声名著之螺丝在拧紧 有声名著之三个火手更多名著gt;gt; Article/200902/63104。
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